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On Monday, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier forced through his social security budget bill without a vote by MPs.
The PM controversially used his special powers to force the budget through without a single vote from MPs.
Opposition parties from the far right and the left are bringing no-confidence motions to be tabled this afternoon. His minority government is unlikely to survive the vote – but Barnier is remaining optimistic the motion might not pass.
The far-left party (LFI) and Marine Le Pen’s (far-right) party have both said they will support the motion.
If the no-confidence vote passes then President Macron will have to appoint a new head of government, whose parliamentary majority could again be uncertain.
- Bias Metre
- Right Wing
- High Factuality
France on Europe’s highest mountain of debt
“Rather, the entire political elite must ask itself whether it has grasped the seriousness of the situation. France is sitting on Europe’s highest mountain of debt and needs to make cutbacks in order to preserve some budgetary leeway and not gamble away the dented confidence of rating agencies and bond markets. There has been no shortage of warning shots. And one thing is also clear: in the coming months, France’s ability to act will be even more limited than it already is. This is bad news for Europe, which should actually be worrying about other things in view of the geopolitical challenges.”
- Bias Metre
- Left wing
- High Factuality
New PM would curb Le Pen’s party influence
“The appointment of a new prime minister and a new government would significantly curb Marine Le Pen’s party’s influence. Right now, everyone realises that the future of the government lies in her hands, since it can only stay in power thanks to her goodwill. She is playing this card well by raising the stakes. If a new government is appointed in the near future, whether on a joint (undoubtedly more left-wing) basis or as a ‘technical’ government, her influence would be severely limited, if not reduced to zero.”
- Bias Metre
- Liberal
- Unknown factuality
Financial markets are worried about France
“Interest rates would rise. The financial markets are worried about France. They don’t know which way our country is headed. … France’s attractiveness would decline. In recent years, since 2015, France has become more attractive to foreign investors. … But since the dissolution of parliament, investors have been asking themselves: should they invest elsewhere? Should they wait and see if France remains hospitable? Some projects have already been cancelled, others have been scaled back or postponed. The fall of the Barnier government would only fuel this spiral of mistrust.”
- Bias Metre
- Centre-left
- Unknown factuality
Macron to blame for political crisis
“Perhaps, if one is permitted to draw a lesson at such a dramatic moment, his excess of programmatic Europeanism, coupled with a lack of pragmatic Europeanism, has ultimately turned against him. If he had succeeded in realising at least some of the projects he announced, if he had really dared to share with his allies the military and nuclear supremacy he wields in Europe, France and Europe themselves would not be reduced to this pitiful state today.”
Why is France in so much debt?
Government debt in France comes to 106% of gross domestic product (GDP) – about the same as Belgium and Spain and less than Greece or Italy. However, when one includes private sector debt, the French debt burden is tied for first place in the Eurozone.
Moreover, French debt has been on the rise in recent years whereas debt burdens elsewhere have been falling relative to national output. In Spain, for example, total debt-to-GDP has fallen from 311% to 232% over the course of the past ten years. In France, it has increased from 287% to 315% over the same period.
Part of the reason is that France is running large budget deficits equivalent to 5.5% of GDP – the second highest among the Eurozone countries. This means that France is accumulating new public debt faster than most of its peers. Additionally, since no political party is close to having a majority in the National Assembly, it is difficult for France to implement policies that would change the country’s fiscal trajectory.
Why is France facing a no-confidence vote?
The French parliament is expected to vote today on a no-confidence motion against prime minister Michel Barnier’s minority government.
Here’s the parliamentary arithmetic that explains how we got here and how the vote could play out.
Why couldn’t Michel Barnier pass his budget?
The crisis came to a head this week when France’s prime minister, Michel Barnier, was due to present part of his budget package for parliamentary approval. The government parties together form about a third of the Assemblée Nationale, and Barnier knew he could not pass his budget in the face of opposition from the two main other blocs, the left and far-right.
As this chart shows, a united government still falls far short of a majority in the Assemblée Nationale. This wouldn’t matter if enough other members abstained, but Barnier’s opponents had made it clear they intended to vote against.
Barnier could have allowed the bill to fail, and bought time, but he has two more of these bills to pass before December 20, and seems to have thought it better to bring the crisis to a head now.
He used a provision of the French constitution, article 49.3, which allows a government to pass some bills without the approval of the Assemblée. Doing so however immediately creates an opportunity for the deputies to bring a motion of no-confidence in the government.
Who is putting forward the no-confidence measure?
The leftwing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front or NFP) had already said it intended to put down a no-confidence motion if Barnier used article 49.3 to pass his budget without a vote. But the NFP alone does not have the votes to pass a no-confidence measure, which needs a majority of the house (and not simply a majority of the votes cast).
As this chart shows, if other parties merely abstained, the leftist parties could not reach the 289 vote threshold needed to bring down the government.
