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What does a Donald Trump presidency look like for the economy?
On Tuesday, the United States voted for its next President. Donald Trump will take office in January (four years after he lost re-election). In the lead-up to the election, he made a series of promises to the American people – including 50% tariffs on Chinese goods and tariffs on all other imports of up to 20%, including for European countries.
He’s also promised to mass evacuate migrants – which could see 15 million people deported, which could also cost the Americans big. Some analysts suggest it will cost the US economy about US$65 billion for every 2 million people that are booted out of the country.
Here are some opinions from academics and economists.
- Amelia Hadfield
- Head of politics at the University of Surrey
Line up behind the US or China
He has, of course, proposed hitting China with 50% tariffs and then tariffs on all other imports of up to 20%, including for European countries. So they’re going to have to not only deal with that, but figure out whether they line up behind America on that, or whether they line up behind China on that as well.
- Conor O'Kane
- Economist
Prices for American consumers could be upped
In very traditional Republican terms, he’s talking about tax breaks and reduced regulation. In terms of some of his specific pledges on the economy, he’s talking about getting rid of income taxation on tips and overtime. These things combined have the potential to be quite domestically inflationary, I would say.
- Renaud Foucart
- Senior economics lecturer
Continuation of Biden’s approach
China, after decades of mostly export-based growth, must now deal with massive problems of industrial overcapacity. The country is now trying to encourage more domestic consumption and to diversify its trading partners.
