What Happened
According to American media CNN an early U.S. Defence Intelligence assessment, indicates the weekend strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, failed to destroy the core nuclear infrastructure.
What – While entrances were damaged and some above-the-ground structures were hit, centrifuges and enriched uranium stockpiles remain largely intact.
Why – The strikes are estimated to have set Iran’s nuclear programme back by only a few months, directly contradicting President Trump’s claims of “total obliteration.” The White House has labelled the report “flat-out wrong” and criticised the leak.
What Next
The revelation fuels growing doubts over the effectiveness of airstrikes as a strategy to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability and questions Trump’s intentions, did Trump drop the bombs to appease Netanyahu or did he really go after Iran’s Nuclear sites.
Reaction – The intelligence community will continue refining its damage assessments, but with key components still operational, further action may be considered or indeed demanded by Israel. Iran could interpret this as a lack of deterrence and accelerate its nuclear efforts or which seems more plausible, given the dramatic nature of the ceasefire, move on to live another day.
Next – U.S. policymakers and military leaders face mounting pressure to reassess the situation, This is coming from AIPAC, pressuring Iran through diplomatic channels, or prepare for potential follow-up strikes.