The good news for Keir Starmer is that he emerged from this moment under the microscope able to say he achieved some real positives. But when it comes to a trade deal, the devil will be in the detail.
These days politicians are experts at making the infallible sound like a victory, and now doubt him and his PR team will be highlighting the ‘selling-points’ of this trip to the United States.
It was a tense day which almost took a turn for the worst when Keir Starmer confronted the Vice President on free speech in the UK. But that was quickly moved by president Trump.
US-UK trade deal – The devil will be in the detail
The Prime Minister arrived at the White House with his To-do- list in his hand and special letter in his pocket; Ukraine, Tariffs, NATO and special dispensation for UK and for Europe. Clearly he was worried of how the meeting would go, which is why he did not go into any real details and had the invitation for a second state visit from King Charles in his pocket.
Trying to find a divide
At one point, Sir Keir was asked about Trump’s controversial call to make Canada – a member of the Commonwealth – the 51st state of the US.
“I think you’re trying to find a divide that doesn’t exist,” Sir Keir replied.
Trump interjected quickly with the words “that’s enough” before moving on – again taking control of the room as he stood next to a visibly surprised Sir Keir.
While cordial, the initial meeting in the Oval Office between Sir Keir and Trump left no doubt that the US president hoped to be firmly in charge.
Job one – NATO – hmmm!
Job one was to get President Trump to reaffirm that most critical of things, the US commitment to the collective promise NATO countries make to defend each other.
“I support it,” Trump said after the men had had their lunch. That was reassuring and perhaps will do for now, but be prepared to accept that President Trump may change his tune in a few days.
President Trump also indicated he’s inclined to think the UK’s deal to secure the airbase on the Chagos Islands is a good thing. That would be a big win for Starmer.
Job two – Tariffs
This is where things get more ambiguous. Donald Trump is slapping tariffs on nations left, right and centre. He calls it ‘a beautiful word, and a beautiful thing’ So how did the PM fair? Could he get any special consideration for a ‘special relationship’? “He tried,” suggesting it didn’t work Trump said.
Trump talked about a possible “trade deal”. But there’s long been talk of that. The devil is in the detail, and what the US might ask the UK to give up. Starmer only spoke about an “economic partnership” based on AI which is much more limited, but perhaps a workaround.
Trump did say when asked to name their similarities Trump said: “He loves his country, and so do I.”
What else do they share? Trump said “we like each other, frankly, and we like each other’s country”.
Job three – Ukraine
And finally job three, Ukraine. Here, little has changed. Yes, Trump declined to say again that Ukraine’s President is a dictator. Yes, he praised Ukraine, saying helping defend it was a “worthy thing to do” and he’d try to see it get territory back. Doesn’t he sound cuddly and magnamus as the peacemaker.
But, for context Trump does not see Russia as an enemy, sure, we have and the US have built that narrative for years but he if one of the few people who knows Putin and he believes he can trust Vladimir Putin. So he won’t provide security guarantees to Ukraine, or even to British troops if they are sent there.
Flattery works! Job done
Flattery – the icing on the cake, to build a rapport with a president who can be capricious, unpredictable and disrespectful, even to his friends, nevermind those he doesn’t respect, but who has the power to make decisions that are vital to the UK.
Part way through their opening remarks, the prime minister reached inside his jacket pocket and pulled out an official letter from King Charles III – an invitation for a second state visit.
Trump appeared to be genuinely taken back for a few seconds, asking: “Am I supposed to read it right now?”
After taking a minute to read the letter, Trump said he accepted the invite and that it would be an “honour” to visit the “fantastic” country.
He added that King Charles was a “beautiful man, a wonderful man”.
There were mutual slaps on the shoulder, lots of talk about shared history and ties, and the theatrical flourish of the letter from the King and a historic invitation for a second state visit.
What about EU and US relations?
Finally, on the issue of the European Union, the gulf with the UK and Europe is as deep as ever and this meeting did not close any of that distance. The letter from the King has flattered but ultimately hasn’t changed that.
However, now that the EU has witnessed the potential of the UK’s relationship with the US, it will give Starmer more power and authority in EU relations, knowing that the UK could be key for the EU’s relationship with the United States.
But this all comes back to the particular of the trade deal, the devil will be in the detail.
There is a bigger issue at play here, even if the UK was to avoid direct tariffs – and that’s still an if – there is still the potential for a globalised tariff war that’s still going to affect a global economy like the UK.
The biggest loser was Nigel farage
This was one of the quietest days for Nigel Farage, normally so vocal, before, during and after such significant meetings. But with all the positive vibes coming out from this meeting between Keir Starmer’s meeting with Trump, all leaves Nigel Farage looking a bit out of touch.
He’s claimed the White House had “outright hostility” to the deal, so either the PM is brilliant negotiate or Farage is out of favour, and no longer in the loop after his pat with Elon Musk.
