Cliff Notes – Israel plans for Gaza ‘conquest’

Israel’s security Cabinet has approved an escalated military plan, termed “Gideon’s Chariots,” aimed at the comprehensive control and occupation of Gaza, including the drafting of tens of thousands of reservists.
The operation will involve forcibly relocating the majority of Gaza’s civilian population south, dismantling Hamas, and seeking to secure the release of hostages, with a new aid mechanism to be implemented post-operation.
Prime Minister Netanyahu asserted the intention to occupy and hold seized territories, with far-right officials encouraging the public to accept the term “occupation” as Israel expands its control within Gaza.

Israel plans for Gaza ‘conquest’

Israel’s security Cabinet has unanimously approved a plan to widen the military offensive in Gaza. Dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots,” it includes the “conquest of Gaza” and occupying the territory, an Israeli official said on Monday, without specifying how long the occupation would last. The Cabinet also approved the drafting of tens of thousands of reservists to carry out the operation.

From what details have emerged so far, the plan involves the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) invading and seizing control of Gaza territory, forcibly displacing the civilian population to the south of Gaza, “dismantling” the militant group Hamas, releasing the remaining hostages held in Gaza, and establishing a new aid mechanism — but only after the operation has begun.

It is not expected to be fully implemented until after US President Donald Trump‘s visit to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia next week. Until then, an Israeli security official told reporters on Monday that efforts to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas would continue.

As of latest reports, 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza after the Hamas-led terror attack on October 7, 2023. Only 24 of them are believed to be alive. According to reports from the Gaza Health Ministry the massive military campaign Israel launched in Gaza in response has killed an estimated 52,000 Palestinians — most of them civilians. International agencies widely consider the Gaza Ministry’s death count as reliable.

Forced displacement of Palestinians

Following the Cabinet’s decision, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity, said in a video message posted on X that the new offensive in Gaza will be aimed at defeating Hamas. He added that the “population will be moved, for its own protection.”

Under international law, the forced displacement of civilians during armed conflict is a war crime. When done systematically, it can also be counted as a crime against humanity.

On Monday, the IDF’s chief military spokesman Ephraim Defrin said that “the goal is the return of the hostages, [and] the dismantling and decisive defeat of the Hamas regime.” He also confirmed statements by other officials that a central component of the military operation was the large-scale forcible transfer of the “majority of the Gaza Strip’s population” to areas in southern Gaza. It is unclear what would happen to people who are unable or unwilling to leave.

In addition, one senior security official told reporters that the operational goals would include a “voluntary transfer program” for those displaced in the south — apparently in reference to Trump’s controversial proposal for the US to take “ownership” of the territory and displace Gaza’s population to third countries. United Nations officials have described this as ethnic cleansing. Israeli airstrikes have left large swathes of Gaza uninhabitableImage: Hatem Khaled/REUTERS

In the first months of the war, nearly 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people were displaced by so-called “evacuation orders” issued by the military. They lived in makeshift homes and tents in central and southern Gaza. After Israel created the Netzarim corridor, a military zone which splits northern from southern Gaza, they were unable to move back until a ceasefire took effect in January. Following the ceasefire, hundreds of thousands returned to northern Gaza only to find their homes destroyed or severely damaged.

Conquer and occupy

Unlike in recent months, the Israeli military does not plan to withdraw after a ground operation but “will stay in any area that is conquered,” a senior Israeli official told reporters on Monday. Some reports suggest that these areas would become part of an extended buffer or security zone, which the military has already established and recently expanded inside Gaza. Others suggest that the entire territory, which is only about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), will be seized.

In a video message on X, Netanyahu said, “We are not going in and out, just to call up reserves so they’ll come and seize territory. We withdraw from territory and carry out raids on what remains. (…) That’s not the intention. What’s our intention? The opposite.” He stopped short at detailing how much of the territory would be captured.

Since Israel broke a two-month temporary ceasefire with Hamas and resumed its offensive in March, the military has expanded its so-called security zones and changed the map of the Gaza Strip. In addition to the Netzarim corridor, there’s the newly created Morag corridor, which separates Khan Younis from Rafah. Both corridors run from east to west, dividing Gaza into three parts.

The United Nations estimates that since Israel resumed its offensive, some 70% of the territory is either part of a “red zone,” where coordination with the military is required, or under so-called “evacuation orders” — tantamount to displacement — from the military. This has squeezed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into an ever-shrinking space, while bombing and air strikes continue across Gaza.

On Monday, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that the Israeli public would need to “stop being afraid of the word ‘occupation’.” Speaking with reporters from the Israeli television station Channel 12, he said “We are finally going to occupy the Gaza Strip.”

New aid ‘mechanism’

The Cabinet also reportedly approved a new mechanism for aid distribution in Gaza, but details remained vague.

Since early March, Israel has not allowed any aid, food, medical supplies or commercial goods into Gaza. Aid agencies say most supply stocks have been exhausted. Much of the population can no longer find enough to eat or pay for basic goods, the prices of which have skyrocketed. Aid agencies have said the humanitarian system is close to collapse and have accused Israel of using aid as a political tool. UN officials have warned that starvation is a war crime, but Israel denies this was the intention.

UN decries Israeli blockade of aid supplies to Gaza

Officials claim that the purpose for overhauling aid distribution in Gaza was to prevent Hamas from diverting aid to its operatives. In a briefing to the media, a senior Israeli security official said the humanitarian closure would remain in place for now, and would only reopen after the start of the military offensive and a “comprehensive evacuation of the population to the south.”

The official also said that a “sterile area in the Rafah area” would be secured by the military and that those entering would be “filtered by the IDF to prevent the presence of Hamas members.”

In February, aid organizations had raised the alarm about new guidelines proposed to them by COGAT, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, which operates under the Israeli Ministry of Defense. An internal document circulating among aid organizations, seen by DW, details the proposed overhaul. It includes restricting entry points to one border crossing in the south, near Egypt, tranferring aid to “hubs” run by private security firms and overseen my Israel’s military, and a new process for international aid organization to apply for COGAT approval before receiving permission to operate.

The heads of all UN agencies and organization operating in Gaza have called these plans “unacceptable.” In a joint statement on Sunday, they argued, “it contravenes fundamental humanitarian principles and appears designed to reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic.”