French government risks being toppled this week

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces the biggest risk yet of being deposed by a hostile Assemblée Nationale as his government presents on Monday, December 2, a social security financing bill that has the opposition up in arms. Barnier, a conservative appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September in the wake of an inconclusive snap legislative election this past summer, has no majority in parliament and lives under the constant threat of a no-confidence vote that would, if successful, force him and his team to step down.

Key to any such vote is Marine Le Pen, the parliamentary leader of the far-right Rassemblement National, which has expressed its opposition to several aspects of the government’s 2025 budget plan, including the social security financing bill. These include planned cuts in employer social contributions, a partial end to the inflation-indexing of pensions and a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy.

If Barnier fails to find a parliamentary majority backing the measures, he is expected to use Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, an executive power that allows the government to adopt the measures without a vote. Such a move, however, would trigger a vote of no-confidence that he could survive only if Le Pen’s party abstains, with Barnier having little hope of finding any support left of center.

Le Pen reacted icily Sunday after Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said the government did not plan any further changes to the social security budget plan. “We have taken note,” she told Agence France-Presse, calling the stance “extremely closed-minded and partisan behavior.”

“TheRassemblement National will trigger a no-confidence vote, except of course if there is a last-minute miracle,” RN leader Jordan Bardella told RTL radio. The RN is the largest party in the 577-seat Assemblée Nationale, with more than 140 MPs.

‘Open to dialogue’

On Thursday, Barnier had already scrapped a previously planned increase on an electricity tax, in a concession to critics. Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin pointed to the work done on the budgetary proposals in a parliamentary commission ahead of Monday’s debate, saying the current proposal was already the outcome of a compromise between Assemblée Nationale MPs and members of the French upper house, the Sénat. “To reject this text is to reject a democratic agreement,” he said. In the Sénat, the right-wing majority approved the government’s 2025 budget Sunday, giving a green light to its revenue projections, in a vote boycotted by the left.

The government can still modify its bill until the very last minute and Assemblée Nationale speaker Yael Braun-Pivet on Sunday urged Barnier to do so. “From the start, I have called on the government to negotiate with the various political groups in the Assemblée Nationale,” she told broadcaster Radio J. Barnier’s office had no comment Sunday on whether such discussions were indeed taking place. But it said the prime minister “remains open to dialogue, as he has been from the start.” The Socialist party, part of the left-wing opposition, told Barnier it would vote to topple him if he used article 49.3, saying it would be left with “no other choice.”

Saint-Martin meanwhile warned that the fall of the government would raise the risk premium on French government debt, which has reached rare heights because of the country’s shaky financial situation. France escaped a debt downgrade by S&P last week, with the ratings agency saying that “despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply – with a delay – with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances.” Barnier has promised to improve France’s fiscal position by €60 billion in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public-sector deficit to five percent of gross domestic product, from 6.1% of GDP this year.

A no-confidence motion could come as early as Wednesday. If the government falls over article 49.3, it would be the first successful such no-confidence vote since a defeat for former prime minister Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.