US elections: Why are the US midterms so important?
The Democrats will want to hold onto their majority in both the House and Senate – it’s helpful for any sitting president to have the majority as it’s easier for the president to pass the laws they want.
If the Democrats lose the majority, it could make the last two years of Joe Biden’s presidency very difficult.
There’s no guarantee the Democrats will hold that power by very thin margins. Polls suggest the Republicans could take the House and the Democrats could hold on to the Senate.
The House is made up of 435 seats and most seats are held by either party. There are roughly 30 seats that could swing either way.
These seats are suburban areas around cities in states like Pennsylvania, California, Ohio and North Carolina.
Whilst in the Senate, it appears four of the 35 seats being contested realistically could go either way. The most important here are in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Immigration, crime, abortion, cost of living
There are some very serious issues that will be impacted by the outcome of the results. The big issues include immigration, crime and the cost of living.
But the biggest issue that will be affected by the results will be abortion rights.
Roe v Wade – abortion rights
In June, the US Supreme Court overturned national abortion protections, giving a boost to the Democrats, who support women having the right to choose. Many had used abortion rights as central to their campaign.
But after the initial shock and outrage of the decision, Republicans will try to turn the focus back to inflation, immigration and violent crime.
What’s at stake in the midterms?
Many say the midterm elections are a verdict on how the president is doing and the party that holds the White House tends to lose seats.
It won’t be good for President Biden, whose approval ratings are extremely low.
If the Democrats hold onto their majority, the president will be able to push forward with his plans on climate change, and healthcare, protect abortion rights and tighten gun control.
If the Republicans take control of either the House or the Senate – they will be able to effectively halt the President’s plans.
They would also be able to control investigatory committees – meaning they would be able to end the enquiry into the January 6 attack on the US capitol. They could also launch their own investigations – including on the Chinese business dealings of Joe Biden’s son or the messy withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
A Republican majority would also make it harder for the president to make new appointments, including to the US Supreme Court.
US help for Ukraine could also be affected.
But Biden could veto and block conservative laws on abortion, immigration and taxes which will result in a sort of gridlock until the 2024 presidential and congressional elections.
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What do the midterm results mean for the 2024 presidential elections?
The midterm results are important in understanding who might be in the running to be the Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
If Trump-backed candidates do badly, he’s less likely to get backing from the Republican party to run for the 2024 presidential election.
In Florida and Texas, the Republican governors Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott will hope re-election can spur them for a White House bid.
But if the Democrats can cling onto power in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania there will be growing confidence for the 2024 campaign to get Joe Biden re-elected.
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