US dollar slumps to 50-year low amid Trump policies and market turmoil
What happened
In the first half of 2025, the US dollar has suffered its worst decline since 1973, plunging roughly 10.8% against a basket of major currencies. Analysts link this slump to President Trump’s economic and trade policies, especially erratic tariff actions, ballooning national debt from his “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and public attempts to influence Federal Reserve independence. This decline has eroded the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, while boosting alternative assets like the euro, gold, and non-US bonds.
Why it matters
A weakened dollar ripples across global markets: it raises import costs for US consumers and travel expenses, but improves export competitiveness. Investors fearing prolonged uncertainty are shifting to other currencies and assets like gold and German bonds. Concerns are mounting that persistent policy volatility could undermine the dollar’s central role in global finance, though some analysts argue the decline primarily reflects Fed rate cut expectations.
Reaction
Market reactions have been mixed. Stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new highs, buoyed by low rates and debt-fueled spending. Some analysts suggest the dollar is oversold, with potential for recovery as bearish sentiment peaks. Others paint a bleaker picture: David Roche predicts the dollar could fall another 15-20% over five years without policy adjustments.
What next
Wall Street will closely watch two major developments: the Senate’s vote on Trump’s fiscal bill, which may ramp up debt further, and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. If Trump succeeds in replacing Fed Chair Powell and pushing for rate cuts, the dollar could weaken further. Meanwhile, global investors are offloading US assets, and currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc are likely to continue appreciating.
