US Election 2024: Friday’s Polling – Harris leads, but Trump sees positive signs
According to the Sky News poll tracker, Kamala Harris now holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in the national polls.
This lead has been gradually increasing, likely reflecting a bounce from last week’s debate, and it appears to be holding steady. What’s more, this lead could continue to grow as the poll tracker includes more post-debate data to replace earlier polling results.
A three-point lead is noteworthy. To put it in perspective, after the Biden-Trump debate, which was widely seen as a setback for Biden, Trump held a similar lead of 3.3 points.
So, why isn’t there more alarm over Trump’s position? Part of this is due to the difference in the narrative and momentum that surrounded Biden at the time, with many predicting his situation would worsen. Trump, however, benefits from a few key advantages that Biden didn’t have.
First, as previously discussed, Harris needs a larger national polling lead to secure victories in the critical swing states. A three-point lead doesn’t guarantee success in those key battlegrounds. These swing states represent voters in specific regions with diverse demographics and economic conditions.
There are three main geographic clusters of swing states: the southeast (Georgia and North Carolina), the northeast (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin), and the southwest (Nevada and Arizona). Polling from Ipsos has revealed the top issues that voters in these regions prioritise, and interestingly, they show similar concerns across the board.
For voters, “democracy” refers to worries about threats to democratic institutions and rising political polarisation. The economy, however, takes on different meanings depending on the region—such as manufacturing in the Rust Belt versus agriculture in the southeastern states. Despite these regional nuances, clear priorities have emerged, and voters in these swing states have strong opinions about which candidate is best suited to address them.
However, there are some regional differences worth noting. In the southwest, voters rate Trump especially high on handling the economy and immigration. In the southeast, many believe Trump is better equipped to safeguard democracy. This is promising news for Trump—he’s seen as the stronger candidate on these crucial issues in the areas where it matters most.
That said, Harris maintains a significant advantage in one important metric: her net favorability rating continues to far outpace Trump’s.
In the end, this election will be shaped by the interplay between national trends and local priorities in key swing states. The big picture versus the small picture will ultimately decide the outcome.