Cliff Notes – Trump starts his Middle East trip

Geopolitical Challenges: As President Donald Trump embarks on a three-nation trip to the Middle East, he is set to address significant geopolitical crises, including the ongoing war in Gaza, escalating tensions with Iran regarding its nuclear programme, and India-Pakistan relations. The dynamics of these issues are complicated by the president’s optimism amidst global turmoil.
Release of Hostage in Gaza: The recent release of Edan Alexander, the last American hostage in Gaza, is being framed by Trump and his administration as a potential catalyst for reviving stalled peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas. However, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that plans for military expansion in Gaza will continue without commitments to ceasefire or negotiations.
Adjustments in Foreign Policy Strategy: Trump is contemplating the removal of sanctions on Syria, reflecting a shift in strategy towards the new Syrian government. Additionally, he asserted success in easing tensions between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan through a mix of diplomatic rewards and threats, while efforts to engage Iran in nuclear negotiations remain complex and unresolved.

Trump Starts His Foreign Trip with a Crush of Problems — and Outsized Certainty He Has the Answers

Washington (AP) — President Donald Trump set out on a three-nation visit to the Middle East on Monday, a trip he had originally intended to use to focus on his efforts to press wealthy Gulf nations to pour billions in new investment into the United States.

But now Trump finds himself navigating a series of geopolitical crises — and searching for glimmers of hope in the deep well of global turmoil — that are casting greater import on the first extended overseas trip of his second term.

“This world is a lot safer today than it was a week ago,” Trump crowed to reporters as he sized up the foreign policy challenges he’s facing as he heads to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. “And a lot safer than it was six months ago.”

The president was brimming with an overabundance of confidence about some of the world’s most intractable problems, from tensions in South Asia to the future of sanctions in Syria to the war in Ukraine.

But behind closed doors, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim al-Thani, and Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed will be looking to get a bead on how Trump intends to push ahead on resolving the war in Gaza, dealing with Iran’s rapidly progressing nuclear program and addressing India-Pakistan tensions.

Trump starts his Middle East trip with a crush of problems

And after weeks of threats and cajoling, it remains to be seen if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will listen to Trump, who is demanding they meet in Istanbul this week to discuss ending Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Trump, for his part, projected confidence that the meeting will happen and even seemed somewhat optimistic that the end to the conflict is near. He floated the idea of making a detour from his itinerary to visit Turkey if he thinks his presence would be constructive.

“I was thinking about flying over. I don’t know where I am going be on Thursday,” Trump said. “I’ve got so many meetings. … There’s a possibility there, I guess, if I think things can happen.”

But Ukraine’s allies remained deeply skeptical Monday about prospects for talks and whether Putin was serious about peace.

“If there is no ceasefire there cannot be talks under fire,” European Union commission vice president Kaja Kallas told reporters at a meeting on Ukraine in London. “We want to see that Russia also wants peace. It takes two to want peace, it takes only one to want war, and we see that Russia clearly wants war.”

Trump sees opening in Gaza

Just as Trump was preparing to depart Washington for the Saudi capital of Riyadh, the last living American hostage in Gaza, Edan Alexander, was released.

Trump and administration officials framed the moment — a goodwill gesture toward Trump by Hamas — as a chance to get foundering peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas back on track.

“This was a step taken in good faith towards the United States and the efforts of the mediators — Qatar and Egypt — to put an end to this very brutal war and return ALL living hostages and remains to their loved one,” Trump posted on social media after Hamas extended the offer Sunday. “Hopefully this is the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict.”

While Trump pumped up Alexander’s release as a potential turning point, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was far more subdued. Israel, notably, has not stepped back from plans to expand its war in Gaza.

Netanyahu’s office, in a statement Monday, underscored it had “not committed to a ceasefire of any kind or the release of terrorists” in exchange for Alexander.

“The negotiations will continue under fire, during preparations for an intensification of the fighting,” the prime minister’s office statement said.

Trump takes a different tone on Syria

As he prepared to leave Washington, Trump also said he’s weighing removing sanctions on the Syrian government. It’s an issue that’s top of mind for the three Gulf leaders, who have rallied behind the new government in Damascus and will want Trump to follow through.

“We may want to take them off of Syria, because we want to give them a fresh start,” said Trump, adding that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has urged him to do so.

The comments marked a striking change in tone from Trump, who has been deeply skeptical of Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

Al-Sharaa took power after his Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led an offensive that toppled former President Bashar Assad in December.

The Trump administration has yet to formally recognize the new Syrian government. Sanctions imposed on Damascus under Assad also remain in place.

Cajoling India and Pakistan with trade

Trump also took credit for his administration keeping India and Pakistan from returning to a state of all-out war amid the deadliest fighting in six years between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

The president said he and aides were ultimately able to talk sense to India and Pakistan’s leadership and guide them away from further escalation by dangling carrots, while also threatening both nations with sticks.

“I said, ‘Come on, we’re going to do a lot of trade with you guys,’” Trump said. “‘If you stop it, we’ll do trade. If you don’t stop it, we’re not going to do any trade.’ People never use trade the way I used it.”

The situation remains tenuous. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Monday that his country has only “paused” its military action and will “retaliate on its own terms” if there is any future terror attack on the country.

Big differences remain in Iran nuclear talks

The president will arrive in the region after his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, held the fourth round of nuclear talks Sunday in Oman with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi.

As the talks continue, the Trump administration has sent mixed messages about what nuclear work Iran would be allowed to do under a potential deal.

Senior administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have said that Tehran would be required to import enriched material to run nuclear reactors for civilian purposes. Trump, however, said this past week that his administration hasn’t made a decision on the issue.

It’s also unclear if Trump will insist that Tehran give up support of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi militants in Yemen as part of any nuclear deal.

Whatever his negotiating frame may be, Trump seemed confident that Iran is engaging rationally, and that he will cement a deal soon.

“You can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said of his demand for Iran. “But I think that they are talking intelligently.”

However, the two sides still appear a long way from any deal, even as time passes on a two-month deadline imposed by Trump.