Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in a special address to the Sejm, said he was presenting the public and MPs with “the most probable scenario for the coming few months”.

“It is a scenario involving serious events and requiring us to be focused, serious and, above all, mentally ready to pass difficult tests,” Tusk said.

He stressed that such tests “certainly lie ahead for all Poles”.

The head of government pointed out that his comments refer to the period up to early spring, “because, according to all sources, it is late autumn and winter that will be the most critical phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war so far”.

Jet-powered drones: Russia’s new weapon

He also pointed to a significant development “of a very negative nature”: Russia is rolling out on a mass scale a new type of drone – jet-powered drones that travel at much higher speeds and operate at high altitude before dropping and hitting their target. He noted that hardly anyone is effectively prepared to counter them and that “this is work we, too, have to do”.

Tusk announced he would travel to Ukraine to talk with President Volodymyr Zelensky “about how we can cooperate within the anti-ballistic coalition and make use of the skills, capabilities and capacities of Ukraine and other countries in this field as well”.

He also referred to the unfulfilled promises of an energy truce previously mentioned by US President Donald Trump.

“Since then, there have been many attacks, including on energy infrastructure in Ukraine. We must therefore assume this will continue, which also has consequences for Poland, as these attacks are increasingly targeting installations very close to our border crossings with Ukraine,” he said.

According to the prime minister, Russia’s aim is to destroy Ukraine’s economy and logistics on as large a scale as possible. “For now, Ukraine’s,” he added pointedly.

Six main Ukrainian cities in Russia’s sights

The Polish prime minister said constant strikes of very high frequency and intensity are expected on six key Ukrainian cities, along with the destruction of stockpiles of supplies essential for the country’s defence and of railway infrastructure. Tusk recalled that in the past several weeks Russians have destroyed more than 300 Ukrainian railway locomotives.

The head of government said that “in the assessment of intelligence services, Russia’s plans also include hybrid strikes with drones and missiles on states supporting Ukraine, including Poland”. Such possibilities have been mentioned for some time, but now, Tusk stressed, the information is already “highly consistent and, unfortunately, persuasive”.

In the prime minister’s view, potential strikes will be “so-called ‘accidental'”, aimed at paralysing or weakening NATO members’ motivation to invoke alliance provisions in the event of aggression.

“There is a real risk that the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank may be entered by drones or other types of missiles, which may even cause destruction. And the official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to contemplate any response from NATO,” he said.

Russia’s objective, he said, is “to weaken NATO’s overall cohesion and, above all, to convince NATO countries that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical”. Such “accidental” strikes may be repeated.

Tusk: on security, we must speak with one voice

Continuing, the prime minister said that Russia’s new strategy also envisages possible political changes in some European countries. He recalled the forthcoming elections and the presence of forces that can be described as an openly pro-Russian option. He appealed to politicians, regardless of party colours – addressing in particular MPs from the Confederation party – “under no circumstances to take part, whether inadvertently or deliberately, in promoting narratives that Russia cares deeply about”.

“Whipping up hostility towards the European Union, towards our allies, towards Ukrainians, is directly implementing Russia’s strategy. Everyone must finally understand this,” he underlined.

In closing, Tusk called on everyone present in the Sejm chamber to “speak with one voice, take joint decisions, hesitate no longer and show that, regardless of political views, we are all patriots in a moment of trial” when it comes to the security of borders, Polish airspace and people’s homes. He pointed out that some politicians in Europe “are just waiting for an alibi” so that, in the event of conflict, they can argue: “We will not die for Poland, we will not perish for Latvia or Lithuania”.

“Article 5, allied loyalty, fidelity to commitments must become our hallmark,” he declared. He added that Poland wants and needs certainty that, in the event of a more serious threat from Russia, it can “count on a swift and effective response from the entire bloc”.