When Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv on Monday night, residents were caught off guard. There was no advance air-raid warning, leaving people confused and with no time to seek shelter as explosions rocked the capital.

Such incidents have occurred before, but this time the lack of warning fuelled speculation that Washington might have suspended intelligence-sharing with Kyiv amid escalating diplomatic tensions.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Tuesday that Ukraine had received no advance warning from its partners about the incoming missiles, stressing that such intelligence was critical to save civilian lives.

Ukraine’s Air Force initially reported that Russian forces had launched what appeared to be six ballistic missiles towards the capital at approximately 10pm.

Zelenskyy subsequently said five missiles had struck civilian infrastructure, describing the attack as “particularly vile.”

“Intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches helps save lives and this is one of the most critical issues. This is precisely what helps prevent people from being killed – when there is an early warning about ballistic missiles,” Zelenskyy said.

But Ukrainian presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov, known as “Flash”, cautioned against linking the incident to a possible US intelligence cut-off.

“This is not the first time that an S-400 launch has gone undetected by our partners’ intelligence services. There are certain technical nuances involved. We should not jump to conclusions,” he wrote in a post on Facebook.

Ukraine’s Air Force said its radar systems detected the incoming missiles during the attack, but that it had received no information about their launch from Russian territory. It said it was investigating why the warning had not arrived.

Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat confirmed that the air-raid alert had sounded only once the attack was under way, but stressed that the US was not Ukraine’s only intelligence partner, with other NATO countries also providing information on Russian strategic aviation, naval movements and ballistic missile launches.

“There are moments when this information fails to arrive. This is not the first case,” Ihnat said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha also dismissed speculation that Washington had deliberately withheld intelligence.

Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum Sybiha said intelligence cooperation with the US was continuing and attributed the absence of an early warning to a “special type of weaponry” used by Russia.

The European Commission also sought to play down concerns about a possible suspension, saying on Tuesday that, to its knowledge, Washington had not threatened to cut off intelligence-sharing or weapons sales to Ukraine.

Washington’s intelligence leverage

The uncertainty comes amid reports that Washington has threatened to suspend intelligence-sharing and weapons sales, including supplies purchased by European allies for Ukraine, unless Kyiv stops targeting Russian oil refineries.

Ukraine considers Russian oil facilities legitimate military targets, arguing that the revenues they generate help Moscow finance its war.

The possibility of a suspension is far from hypothetical.

In March 2025, the Trump administration temporarily halted intelligence-sharing and military assistance to Ukraine amid a diplomatic confrontation with Kyiv. Both were subsequently restored following talks between American and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

The episode demonstrated how quickly Washington could use security cooperation as a source of political leverage and how dependent Ukraine remained on American capabilities.

US intelligence remains crucial to Ukraine’s ability to anticipate Russian attacks, particularly through satellite-based systems capable of detecting missile launches before incoming weapons appear on ground-based radar.

Other NATO countries also share intelligence with Kyiv, but it remains unclear how far European allies could compensate should another American suspension come into force.

For now Ukrainian officials largely insist cooperation with Washington continues and there is no evidence that Monday’s missing warning resulted from a deliberate decision to withhold intelligence.

European military sources told EU News that intelligence-sharing would likely be the last form of US support to be withdrawn, as cutting it off could also put American diplomats and those of its allies stationed in Ukraine at risk.