By&nbspMagnolia Tovar, Head of the ‘Technologies and Impact’ division at the think tank ‘Future Cleantech Architects’, and a trained chemical engineer

Published on
04/05/2026 – 11:13 GMT+2

Half of the world’s population is alive thanks to synthetic fertilisers. At the heart of modern agriculture lies ammonia. It is the key ingredient used to produce nitrogen fertilizers which sustain crop yields across the globe.

Developed in the early 20th century by German scientists, Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch, the industrial synthesis of ammonia transformed food systems and supported unprecedented population growth worldwide. It also helped turn Europe into a global leader in scientific and industrial innovation.

Today, however, the same process that once gave Europe an edge is now exposing it to growing economic, geopolitical, and environmental risks.

The modern food system remains dependent on fossil fuels

Ammonia production relies heavily on natural gas, primarily as feedstock to produce hydrogen. As a result, the modern food system remains dependent on fossil fuels. When gas prices rise, fertiliser production becomes significantly more expensive, undermining the competitiveness of European industry and increasing costs across the agricultural value chain.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this vulnerability has become impossible to ignore. In 2022, European gas prices surged more than tenfold, rising from historically low levels to record highs. Fertiliser plants across the continent, including industrial leaders like BASF, were severely affected by this shock. At the peak of the crisis, as much as 70 % of Europe’s ammonia production capacity was offline.

The conflict in the Middle East has once again highlighted the risks of relying on gas imports and fossil-delivered exports to sustain our food system: roughly one-third of global fertilizer exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway that proves highly vulnerable to disruption.

Europe’s agriculture under pressure

Europe’s rapidly eroding manufacturing base now carries strategic consequences. It increases reliance on fertiliser imports from countries like Algeria, China, Egypt, Russia, and the United States.

This creates a paradox: while European policymakers seek to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels for important sectors like buildings or road transport, the continent risks becoming increasingly dependent on imported nutrients (produced elsewhere using the same fossil fuels).

Europe has been here before. Prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process, European agriculture relied heavily on nitrate imports from Chile, creating supply vulnerabilities that shaped geopolitical strategy. Today, the vulnerability is returning – this time it is driven by dependence on fossil fuels imports. Maintaining Europe’s industrial leadership therefore requires a new wave of innovation.

There is also a climate imperative. Global ammonia production emits roughly 450 million tonnes of CO₂ each year – comparable to twice Spain’s annual emissions. Cutting these emissions matters not only for climate targets, but also for the long-term resilience of food production.

Fertilisers produced using clean electricity

Europe has begun exploring low-carbon ammonia production using hydrogen generated from renewable electricity. Yet this pathway requires major new infrastructure for hydrogen production, transport and storage. That is expensive and risks being too slow.

More promising technologies could change the equation entirely. Emerging processes aim to produce nitrogen-based fertilisers using nitrogen from air, water, and electricity. This can eliminate reliance on fossil gas and potentially bypass hydrogen altogether. The technical details differ, but the goal is the same: to use clean electricity to produce fertilizers in a way that is more reliable, less polluting, and ultimately cheaper.

If these technologies succeed at scale, they could allow fertiliser production in more locations, especially in regions outside Europe where the renewable energy potential is even higher. Smaller and more flexible plants could complement existing large facilities, making supply chains more resilient and creating new industrial opportunities.

New fertiliser tech could protect jobs in industrial regions

This also matters for jobs. Europe’s chemical industry supports hundreds of thousands of skilled workers, many of them in industrial regions that feel threatened by the energy transition. A new generation of fertiliser technologies could uplift and modernise this industrial base rather than simply see this industry migrating abroad.

As a first step, policymakers should support pilot plants and demonstration projects so that emerging technologies can move from the lab to commercial scale. Early deployment will not be cheap. But it is clear now more than ever that dependence on gas – with its recurring price shocks – is no longer viable. As renewable electricity expands and new production methods mature, costs are likely to fall. Europe already has strong capabilities in electrochemistry, engineering and industrial manufacturing. It is time to use them.

Europe’s next Haber-Bosch moment is within reach.

Magnolia Tovar, Head of the ‘Technologies and Impact’ division at ‘Future Cleantech Architects’, is a chemical engineer with over 25 years experience in industrial decarbonisation and the energy transition across more than 20 countries.