South Koreaās Constitutional Court could soon rule on whether to dismiss or reinstate impeached conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol. That doesnāt mean the political crisis caused by Yoonās short-lived imposition of martial law is over.
President Yoon Suk Yeol Fate to be determined today
South Koreaās already-severe political divide between conservatives and liberals will likely intensify as Seoul grapples with major foreign policy challenges like U.S. President Donald Trumpās āAmerica Firstā foreign policy platform and North Koreaās increasing military cooperation with Russia.
Hereās what to expect about the courtās likely impending verdict on Yoonās Dec. 3 martial law decree that is testing South Koreaās democracy.
What might the court do?
The Constitutional Court has been deliberating whether to formally end Yoonās presidency since the liberal opposition-controlled National Assembly in December voted to suspend him. Yoon is also facing a separate criminal trial after his arrest and indictment by prosecutors in January for alleged rebellion in connection with his martial law decree.
If the Constitutional Court rules against him, he will be officially thrown out of office and a national election will be held for a successor within two months.
If the court rules for Yoon, he would return to presidential duties. It was earlier unclear whether or how soon he might return to work, because he had been in jail until Saturday.
Yoon is South Koreaās first president who has been arrested while in office, and there are no clear laws or past rulings that could guarantee his immediate return to office, analysts say. But he was eventually released from prison, after a Seoul court canceled his arrest and allowed him to stand his criminal trial without being detained.
After hearing 16 witnesses, the court ended arguments on Feb. 25, but it hasnāt announced when it will announce a verdict. Observers say it could come as early as this week or next week, citing past cases where the court ruled on former presidents.
The biggest issue is why Yoon sent hundreds of troops and police officers to the assembly after declaring martial law. Yoon says he wanted to maintain order, but some top military and police officers sent there have said that Yoon ordered them to drag out lawmakers to block an assembly vote about his decree or detain his political rivals.
Lawmakers eventually managed to get in and vote down his decree. No violence and no arrests of politicians actually happened.
What fallout is expected?
Hundreds of thousands of people had earlier rallied near the assembly, calling for Yoonās ouster. But those protests have since been scaled down after Yoonās impeachment. Yoon supporters have also regularly staged major rallies to denounce Yoonās impeachment.
Ousting Yoon from office would prompt his supporters to ramp up protests before a presidential by election to boost prospects for a new conservative president. Reinstating him would rekindle huge liberal demonstrations demanding Yoonās resignation, according to Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership.
āNo matter what decision the Constitutional Court comes up with, South Koreansā division and extremely polarized politics canāt help but to deepen,ā Choi said.
Acting President Choi Sang-mok said Tuesday the government wonāt tolerate any illegal, violent protests, saying concerns about physical clashes between pro- and anti-Yoon forces are growing ahead of the courtās verdict on Yoon.
Pro-Yoon rallies turned violent in January when protesters stormed the Seoul Western District Court after it approved Yoonās formal arrest warrant. The protesters attacked police officers with bricks, steel pipes and other objects. The attack injured 17 police officers.
What about Yoonās rebellion trial?
Investigative authorities have alleged that Yoonās martial law enforcement amounted to rebellion, describing it as riots with the purpose of undermining the constitution. If heās convicted of rebellion, he could face the death penalty or life imprisonment.
Results of Yoonās criminal trial will likely be affected by the Constitutional Court ruling.
The Constitutional Courtās endorsement of Yoonās impeachment would confirm his violation of the constitution and could help increase prospects for Yoonās conviction of rebellion, said Park SungBae, a lawyer specializing in criminal law.
But a rejection would mean that the Constitutional Court believed Yoonās martial law decree wasnāt serious enough to warrant dismissal, or maybe wasnāt even illegal. Prosecutors would subsequently find it burdensome to raise Yoonās alleged rebellion at the criminal trial, Park said.
Prosecutors indicted Yoon only on charges of rebellion, because he has presidential immunity from most criminal prosecution. Some could question whether his criminal trial should continue if his impeachment is overturned at the Constitutional Court.
Even if the Constitutional Court reinstates Yoon, Choi said that Yoonās authority has already been badly hurt, so South Koreaās leadership vacuum will likely continue.