Cliff Notes – Nintendo Switch 2 sales predictions are not as high as you might think
- Nintendo aims to sell 15 million Switch 2 units in its first nine months, slightly above the original Switch’s performance but below analyst forecasts of 6 to 8 million units.
- Tariff uncertainties have led Nintendo to temper its sales expectations, impacting production and pre-order timelines, particularly in North America.
- Despite these challenges, the Switch 2 has already sold out in Japan, indicating strong initial demand and potential for significant sales growth.
Nintendo Switch 2 sales predictions are not as high as you might think
How will both consoles fare once the Switch 2 launches? (Nintendo/YouTube)
The latest financial results from Nintendo include sales estimates for the Switch 2 and its predecessor, as tariffs make accurate predictions almost impossible.
With GTA 6 officially not coming out until next year, 2025 is open season for Nintendo. The Nintendo Switch 2 is poised to dominate the gaming scene upon its launch this June and Nintendo has a string of first party games coming out throughout the following months.
Analysts have been trying to predict how well the new console will perform, but now Nintendo has published its own numbers as part of its latest financial report.
Intriguingly, Nintendo is estimating that the console will sell more units in its first year than the original Switch managed, but much less than analysts have predicted.
How much will the Switch 2 sell in its first year?
Nintendo is aiming to sell 15 million Switch 2 consoles throughout the 2026 fiscal year, which runs until the end of March 2026. Since the Switch launches on June 5, that gives it nine months to reach that total.
By comparison, the Switch 1 sold just under 15 million units in its first nine months, so Nintendo is banking on its successor being a smidge more popular – but basically the same.
While this would still make the Switch 2 one of the fastest selling consoles ever, last month analysts were predicting six to eight million sales worldwide, which would be the biggest launch of any games console ever.
The reason for Nintendo lowballing its estimates is obvious. The sweeping tariffs announced last month by US president Donald Trump have resulted in a lot of economic uncertainty for Nintendo, as well as every other business.
It hasn’t helped that the new rules kept changing, with Trump pausing his initial tariffs only a week later, except for anything coming from China. What’s more, his tariffs against China kept going up and currently sit at 145%.
As a reminder, Nintendo manufactures a lot of its hardware in China, which is why it’s been moving console production to Vietnam to bypass these tariffs… only for Vietnam to be slapped with increased tariffs anyway. Although they did come down to 10% after a few days.
All that makes it very difficult to tell how well the Switch 2 will sell globally, so Nintendo is likely trying to keep expectations in check. If the chaos of the last month or so has proven anything, it’s that things can drastically change at any moment.
The problem is that investors will know about the high-balled analyst predictions, even though they’re not official, and Nintendo’s share price will suffer if they’re not achieved.
Nintendo even had to delay when pre-orders would be available in the US and Canada (Nintendo)
This sentiment was echoed by analyst Dr Serkan Toto, who told VGC, ‘When it comes to forecasts, I would not want to be in Nintendo’s shoes now,’ analyst Dr Serkan Toto told VGC. ‘God knows how the tariff situation will evolve even over the next few days, so how is a company supposed to predict sales for an entire year?’
That said, it’s unlikely the Switch 2 will do poorly. Despite Nintendo’s efforts to meet sales demand, the console’s already sold out in Japan, with company president Shuntaro Furukawa publicly apologising for not having enough launch stock available.
How much has the Nintendo Switch sold in total?
As for the original Switch, Nintendo is expecting a massive drop in sales. According to its financial results, it sold 10.8 million Switch consoles in the 2025 fiscal year and predicts it will sell a further 4.5 million this year.
That drop is not surprising considering the console’s age and the arrival of its shiny new sibling. However, if hits that target then overall sales will pass 156 million.
That would be quite the milestone since it would officially beat the Nintendo DS’ lifetime sales – 154.02 million – and become Nintendo’s best-selling console ever.
The Switch 1 still has some life left in it, with Rhythm Heaven Groove and Tomodachi Life: Living The Dream on track for a 2026 launch, not to mention the cross-gen Metroid Prime 4 this year.
As such, the Switch 1 is still in with a chance to overtake the PlayStation 2, the world’s best-selling console. The PlayStation 2’s lifetime sales are said to be more than 160 million, but the Switch 1 could surpass it in the next year or so if Nintendo really does have more games planned for it.
The PlayStation 2’s total used to be 155 million but Sony suddenly moved the goalposts to the much vaguer figure above, as soon as the Switch started getting close to it.
Even so, it is perfectly likely that the Switch 1 will exceed 160 million sales, especially as it will be kept on sale as a lower priced alternative to the Switch 2.
There’s a reason Nintendo picked Mario Kart World as its big Switch 2 launch title (Nintendo)
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