Cliff Notes

Donald Trump‘s military actions against Iran risk escalating into a broader regional or global conflict, dependent largely on responses from Iran’s key allies, Russia and China.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s upcoming consultations with Vladimir Putin highlight the urgency for Tehran to secure support amid perceived threats to its regime.
The dynamics of military assistance among authoritarian allies—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—could complicate the US’s strategic calculations as they navigate the crisis.

Iran has little choice but to retaliate against US – as Russia faces urgent decision on how to back Tehran

Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran could trigger a wider regional or even global war, but much will hinge on how Russia and China – Tehran’s most powerful allies – respond.

Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said he will hold “serious consultations” with Vladimir Putin on Monday morning in Moscow.

His country is also in contact with Beijing.

Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are regarded by Western allies as a new axis of authoritarian powers, increasingly aligned and supportive of each other.

Donald Trump, though, has broken ranks from his country’s traditional democratic partners to forge a closer relationship with Mr Putin than any other US leader in recent years.

How much that might affect the Kremlin’s calculations, as Moscow weighs up how to respond to his actions in Iran, adds a new layer of unpredictability to the crisis.