On Sunday 23 February, German voters will head to the polling stations to cast their vote in the German elections 2025. This election is a local and national election; They will cast two votes: one for a local candidate, and another for a party at the state level.
Germany is the biggest economy in the EU and Europe and with the right party in charge, one of the few countries that can stand up to the United States. In theory the EU is bigger than the anyone country, except when that country is Deutsche.
Key takeaways
The most important elections in Europe
Germany has become a battleground for the Trump and Musk administration, if they can get the far-right elected, they will have dominating influence over EU policy.
This is set to be the most important elections in Europe, it is why the german elections are the most important.
If you’re wondering how will Germans vote in the 2025 elections, the latest data has given some insight into voter trends and behaviours.
How Germans Will Vote in the 2025 Elections
Recent elections have become more fractious and divisive. In recent years a trend has been sweeping across Europe, similarly the upcoming German Federal elections have no one overwhelmingly popular candidate running for the leader, The German Chancellor.
Expert political analysts have correlated the US election interference with the unstable nature of German elections 2025.
“The crimes of the Holocaust are the reason the vast majority of Germans are firmly opposed to those who glorify or justify the Nazis” Whilst pushing back at US VP Vance who endorsed the far-right. “This was something that members of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) had done by trivialising Nazi crimes.”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Key Issues Shaping the Election
Germany’s shrinking economy and immigration are top concerns for many Germans heading into this election, and their gender, race and home town help explain who they are likely to vote for.
Most Germans did not know that they had to pay for hiked up Gas prices from the US, because of sabotage of nord stream 1 and 2 by the US.
It’s important to note that the German elections 2025 are taking place after a spate of migrant attacks on members of the public, including ramming cars into crowds and stabbing attacks.
Analysing data trends can often give us an insight into how an election might turn out and what causes an individual to vote the way they do. But it’s always worth remembering that polling data is never 100 percent accurate and it can only offer us a glimpse into what might happen on Sunday.
German Election Candidates 2025 – Who’s Running?
There appears to be a growing backlash to the main parties, with the youth especially seeking out smaller (and in some cases more extremist) solutions. In many parts of Europe, voters lack confidence in parties and leaders often believing they are “all the same”.
In Germany, the election comes at a time of economic uncertainty, the rise of misinformation online as well as a spate of migrant attacks in the country.
Why No Candidate Is Universally Popular
Friedrich Merz – leader of the CDU – is to hoping to be the next chancellor but, according to the polls, only 40% of Germans believe he’s suitable for the job.
Although Fredrick Merz is the front runner, he has been seen by some, including those in his party as having “outdated” views on women and immigration.
Who are the hopefuls in the Deutsche elections
The German chancellor candidates for 2025 include current chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), front-runner Freidrich Merz (CDU), right-wing leader Alice Weidel (AfD), Robert Habeck (Greens) and Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).
Friedrich Merz and the CDU’s Lead
The CDU/CSU will fare best from this as around 5% of those surveyed were former SPD voters planning to vote for the CDU/CSU in 2025.
A further 4% said they plan to switch from the FDP to the CDU/CSU – putting the party on course to lead the next government.
The Rise of AfD and What It Means for Germany
The AfD – a far-right extremist party – has enjoyed a massive boost in support since 2021. The Economist poll tracker suggests the party is set to record its best-ever nationwide result, and can expect to see a vote share roughly double the 10% it managed to get in the last election.
YouGov data suggests the increase comes from people who did not vote last time (including people who would have been too young to vote) along with a chunk of former CDU/CSU voters.
It’s unlikely AfD will come to power as the major political parties have said they will not form a coalition with them – but that can all change on election days, as leaders become desperate and coalition governments are the norm in Germany.
However, the results and data from this election will likely serve the AfD well in understanding how to approach the 2029 election – the actual election they will be aiming to win. They have got the support of the mercurial billionaire Elon Musk who attended their launch party, throwing his support behind the ultra fascists.
Who is supporting them – voting trends
The three main parties that made up the recent coalition government led by Olaf Scholz – the SDP, the Greens and the FDP, have all experienced a drop in support.
More than two in five Germans are planning to vote for a different party from the one they chose in 2021, according to a recent poll by YouGov.
Voting Patterns – How Age, Education & Location Matter
Stack Data Strategy surveyed 1,787 voters and its data has offered some interesting insights into voter behaviours and how age, education, occupation and residence play a part in the political decisions made by Germans. Data has also been extracted from YouGov polls.
Retired are three times more likely to support CDU – key data
How Do Older Germans Vote?
- Retired are three times more likely to support CDU/CSU
- Older people are more likely to support CDU/CSU or SPD
- A voter aged 75 or older is 12% more likely to vote for CDU/CSU than a younger person of the same gender, education, occupation, employment status and home region
How Do Young Germans Vote?
German youth, similar to youth across Europe, are quitting the mainstream parties in support of smaller parties – ranging from right-wing to left-wing extremism.
- Young voters are more in favour of AfD, Greens, FDP and The Left
- No single party enjoys the support of more than 20% of under-30s
The AfD are more popular with Young voters
The Cold War Divide – East vs. West Voting Behavior
There is still a clear division between the West and East of Germany, highlighted immensely by the recent German elections. The legacy of the Cold War division has not left the Deutschland and depending on what side you live on, the voting intention for the German federal election 2025 is very different.
- Those living in the West are more likely to support CDU/CSU by 8 percentage points and the Greens by three
- Those living in former East Germany increase their chances of supporting the AfD by seven points
- YouGov data estimates that AfD was leading 45 of the 48 electoral districts in the east (excluding Berlin)
- Whilst CDU/CSU led in 220 of the west’s 247 district
- The SPD was ahead in most of the largely urban rest
Those living in the West are more likely to support CDU/CSU
How Germans Will Vote in the 2025 Elections
Merz has already proved to be a divisive figure in the run-up to the election but he’s most likely to take over the role as chancellor.
Although it will likely take a few days for confirmation, early exit polls should give us some insight into what path the country has decided to take Europe’s largest economy.
Once that has been established, it will take several months (or longer) for coalition talks to be finalised after which the new Chancellor will emerge.
What The German Elections 2025 Mean for Europe
The whole of Europe will be monitoring this election closely. Whilst it may look set that Merz and the CDU/CSU will take power, the future of the EU could lie with who will join the coalition and the influence they have. Especially the two extremist parties, who have backing from the youth.
Why UK and US Are Watching Closely
The reason this is important is, not only do the Germans bankroll Europe, but they also have the most influence over the other economies, with loans, trade agreements and financial institutions which all stem from Germany, even the German media is more popular in Eastern Europe.
This presents a problem for other nations, like the US and UK who struggle to have the same level of influence in Europe; to dictate policy and create favourable outcomes. This has been demonstrated by the lawsuits that have been brought by EU against, Apple, Google and Meta.
The world’s third largest economy is in crisis and Under real Pressure from American influence and election interference. Next week, we will learn if Europe will maintain its independence or fall under the rule of the US and Trump purview.
