France, a pessimistic country hit by political crisis

By deciding to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale on June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron sought a “return to the people” following European parliamentary election results that were not favorable to his political camp. Has the “democratic breath” Macron hoped for materialized, and more importantly, has it achieved its desired effects? It does not appear that way, given the looming risk of a no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Michel Barnier as he prepares to pass the government budget bill and the social security budget for 2025.

The political crisis Macron cited to justify his dissolution has not halted. If anything, it seems worse than it was a year ago. This is one of the findings of the twelfth edition of the “Fractures françaises” survey, carried out by Ipsos for The World the Fondation Jean Jaurès, the Centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po (Cevipof) and the Institut Montaigne, from November 14 to 21, with a panel of 3,000 participants. “The cauldron is boiling,” summed up Brice Teinturier, Ipsos deputy director general, emphasizing a notable correlation this year between the “personal sphere and the political sphere.”

On a personal level, the mood among the French is gloomy. Discontent remains massive, affecting more than one in two of those polled, even if the feeling of belonging to an “angry and very contentious” France has fallen back very slightly, to 43%, after several years of sharp increases. Only 3% of French people surveyed said they were “satisfied or appeased,” a feeling shared by just 10% of Renaissance (Macron’s party) supporters, down from 37% in 2021.

‘Stunning effect’

Teinturier attributed this drop in satisfaction in part to the shock of the dissolution but above all to the “discovery of the scale of the public deficit, which created a staggering effect, particularly among Macronist sympathizers.”

Concern about purchasing power – at the top of the French people’s list of concerns – reinforces the negative outlook: 70% of those polled felt that their living conditions were getting worse, only half were satisfied with their lives and 55% said they were struggling to “make ends meet.”

The French are brooding, and their perception of the country’s situation is not likely to lift their spirits. The sense of decline, contained since Macron’s accession to power, is at a record high: 87% now consider the country to be in decline – an 18-point jump since Macron’s election in 2017, when this feeling had significantly plummeted.