Budget 2024: When is budget day and what is Rachel Reeves looking to cut?
Rachel Reeves will announce Labour’s first Budget since coming into power on 30 October, leading one of the most anticipated fiscal events in over two decades.
Ahead of her announcement, government borrowing rose to £16.6 billion last month marking the third highest September borrowing since records began, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This has brought borrowing in the year to date to £79.6 billion – £6.7 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The ONS says public sector pay rises contributed to the unexpected rise.
The public finance figures won’t be welcomed by the chancellor, but official sources have said they demonstrate the need for fiscal prudence at the upcoming Budget.
Treasury Chief Secretary Darren Jones said the state of the public finances meant there would be “difficult decisions” to be made.
The ONS figures also show that spending on benefits is down to a two-year low, decreasing by £2 billion to £25.7 billion. The department says a large part of this is due to the cutback of winter fuel payments and removal of cost of living payments.
Reports indicate that the government still intends to reduce welfare spending by £3 billion a year.
We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.
Key Points
Could capital gains tax be reformed at the Budget?
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset which has increased in value is sold. It is applied to things like the sale of personal possessions worth more than £6,000 (apart from a car), property that’s not the seller’s main home, shares and business assets.
It is charged at 10 or 18 percent for basic rate taxpayers, and 20 or 24 for higher or additional rate earners. There is a tax-free allowance of £3,000.
There are several ways CGT could be changed. In the run-up to the election, the Lib Dems and Greens both said they would rethink the tax bands to be more similar to income tax, raising an estimated £5.2bn a year.
Tax on high earners ruled out as Rachel Reeves looks to plug £40bn Budget black hole
Sir Keir Starmer’s government was hit by another day of Budget confusion after Labour was bounced into conceding that individuals earning above £100,000 are still “working people”.
On a day when the prime minister had hoped to get a grip on the political agenda with the launch of a major consultation over the future of the NHS, Sir Keir faced another series of rows and speculation over whether Rachel Reeves was planning further taxes on the rich.
Borrowing figures prove need for “tough decisions” says Treasury official
Treasury Chief Secretary Darren Jones said the state of the public finances meant there would be “difficult decisions” in the October 30 Budget.
He said: “We have inherited a £22 billion black hole in the country’s public finances, including no plan to fund pay deals for millions of public sector workers.
“Strikes cost at least £3 billion last year, so it was the right thing to do to end those damaging disputes.
“Resolving this black hole at the Budget next week will require difficult decisions to fix the foundations of our economy and begin delivering on the promise of change.”
Could the government tax pension savings?
Pension tax relief is a reduction of the amount of tax paid on private pensions. It helps workers save for retirement by boosting their pension pots.
The amount of tax relief a person is granted is based on their income tax. It will effectively cancel out tax on pension contributions up to a maximum of £60,000.
After this, contributions will be taxed at either 20, 40, or 45 per cent, depending on which income tax rate the worker falls into.
However, the chancellor is thought to be considering a flat 30 per cent pension tax relief rate. This would mean that higher earners would effectively pay 10 per cent in tax, while those on the additional rate would pay 15.
The measure would raise around £3 billion a year, with 7 million earners paying more tax. But it would be better news for basic rate earners, who would actually begin to receive a 10 per cent boost to their pension contributions.
Evaluating the idea last year, the IFS said it would “redistribute the burden of taxation from the bottom 80 per cent to the top 20 per cent of earners.”
Calls for budget to fund Iron Dome-style missile defence system in UK
The UK needs its own version of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system to protect it from Russian aggression, former ministers have said.
Former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt told The I: “This is a significant UK capability gap we must plug at the earliest opportunity. The forthcoming Budget must enable early work to be done on the alliance’s key needs and let the US and other partners know we mean business.”
Fact check: Would raising employer national insurance be a ‘tax on working people’?
Speculation has mounted in the subsequent months, with an increase in employer NICs now looking likely. The measure has caused strong political debate, focused on whether it would break Labour’s manifesto pledge to not raise taxes on “working people.”
Ministers and Treasury officials have indicated the government’s position is that the measure would not break their manifesto pledge. Labour has not confirmed that an employer NIC hike will be included in the Budget, but has refused to rule the measure out.
Meanwhile, Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has argued it would be a “straightforward breach.”
The tax expert adds that in the extreme case that an increase of one pence per pound in employer NICs was passed on to employees in the form of lower wages, the measure would only net £4.5 billion a year. He adds that the end figure would probably be a little higher than this, but much less than a previous HMRC estimate of £8.5 billion.
Martin Lewis sends warning over Buy Now Pay Later crackdown
Martin Lewis has issued a warning over a new crackdown on buy now, pay later products.
The money expert has cautioned consumers it is a case of buy now, get protected later.
Ministers have announced that millions of shoppers are to be protected by new rules for BNPL, as they are known.
Mr Lewis welcomed the change saying: “Buy Now, Pay Later is now ubiquitous at online checkouts, so the fact it’s never been regulated is a travesty I and others have long campaigned on.
“The last chancellor promised to regulate, then the tumbleweed rolled as he went silent, so I am delighted the new government has quickly restarted the process.”
Millionaires urge Reeves to raise £14bn from capital gains tax changes at Budget
Rachel Reeves should increase capital gains tax (CGT) at Labour’s upcoming Budget, a group of millionaire business owners have urged, estimating the measure would raise £14bn a year.
In a report by the IPPR think-tank, analysts have consulted with wealthy entrepreneurs who say higher CGT would not have stopped them from making investments in the UK.
The group has called for CGT to be aligned with income tax, arguing that fears such a move would lead wealthy individuals to leave the country in response are unfounded. Recent HMRC analysis found that a 10 per cent increase to the measure would actually cost the exchequer £2bn after behavioural impacts.
What other steps could be taken to tackle the UK’s economic challenges?
There have been rumours Labour could tweak the fiscal rules the Government uses to constrain its own spending and tax decisions.
Chief among those under consideration for change is the period over which the Government aims to see national debt falling as a percentage of the UK’s overall economic output.
Relaxing this rule to a longer period than the current five-year target, or removing spending by certain public organisations from the total, could allow the Chancellor to borrow more cash to invest in major infrastructure projects such as railways, roads, hospitals and new prisons.
