Autumn Statement 2023 and what it means for the general election
Yesterday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivered the autumn statement – a budget that sets out the government’s tax and spending plans for the year ahead as well as setting out how much will be spent on key public services.
The UK newspapers have reacted accordingly to the mini-budget, with right-leaning papers celebrating the measures, the left-leaning newspapers suggesting it is more of a ‘pro-rich tax giveaway’ that working people will be left to pay for.
Almost all the papers report ponder the upcoming general election and the role the budget plays in it.
Budget draws political lines
The measures show the government wants to set a route out of the cost of living crisis and towards economic growth and prosperity. With inflation falling, they believe they can tell voters that the situation is improving.
For all the giveaways in the budget – cuts to national insurance and alcohol duty frozen – it’s the party’s messaging on welfare which looks to be the political dividing line.
The measures include reform to welfare, including plans to encourage the long-term sick back into employment.
The crackdown on the unemployed gave the chancellor the ability to make a number of traditional Tory arguments and attacks on Labour – “they think compassion is about giving money, we think it’s about giving opportunity” for example.
For Labour, they will argue that the Tories can’t be trusted with the nation’s finances and after 13 years of austerity, the country needs change. They will also highlight that the Tories are the ones who have presided over record numbers of people leaving the workforce in recent years.
The chancellor knows his backbenchers and many Tory voters will be keen on the topic of benefits – and how to reduce the country’s large welfare bill.
After the net-zero U-turn, the Tory party conference, the dull King’s Speech and a laughable reshuffle, the budget was the government’s last real opportunity to attempt a reset for the party ahead of the general election.
But will it be enough to make a difference?
Labour has a 20-point lead in the polls, and the damage auestroy has done to the country is deep. It’s hard not to see the budget as tax cuts for the richest – that will come at the cost of public spending.
The traditional right-leaning papers celebrated the news but even they appeared fairly unconvinced.
The measures announced have led experts to believe a snap general election will be called in May 2024.
Autumn Statement reaction
‘Biggest tax cuts since the 1980s’
The measures announced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt are a hit for the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph both hail what they call “the biggest tax cuts since the 1980s.”
The Mail says the chancellor “defied gloomy predictions” by cutting 2p off National Insurance which it believes is “setting the scene for a tax and spend battle with Labour at the next election.”
The Sun celebrates the measures with a champagne cork popping on the front page.
The Telegraph says the reaction of Tory MPs was to “cheer the good start” and to call for more before the next election. The paper’s editor says cutting NI was the rabbit pulled from the hat – as Hunt tried to “cast a new spell over the electorate.” She also says the mini-budget was impressive in the party’s attempt to fight Labour at the next election.
The Times declares “Hunt eases tax burden” – in contrast to the Financial Times which says “Tax burden suggest despite Hunt cuts.”
‘Ugly future for public services’
The FT says that personal and business taxes have been reduced but overall taxation is still rising to a post-WW2 high. It says the OBR “shed a harsh light” on Hunt’s plans, saying it would be a “modest boost to growth” and see the tax burden rise for the next five years.
The Daily Mirror says the Autumn Statement is less about fizz and more about “swizz”. It says millions of people will be worse off despite paying less NI. It points to economic growth forecasts that have been halved and predictions that inflation will fall more slowly than previously expected.
The Economist notes offering tax cuts is “an ugly future for public services.” The paper calls the cuts a “pre-election giveaway” and questions Hunt’s assertion that lower inflation has given him the space to cut taxes, arguing that space has come from higher inflation.
The Guardian also links the statement’s measures to the upcoming election. The paper speculates there will be a snap general election in the spring. It agrees with the Economist that the “bigger than expected” tax cuts will be paid for by a “fresh squeeze on public spending.”
The paper sees the rise in state benefits and pensions as a sign the government is trying to win votes. The Guardian’s leader article says “This Tory pro-rich tax giveaway is paid for by bankrupting the state”.
The i newspaper points out the tax burden is still forecast to grow to the highest level seen since WW2. The paper says the freezing of income tax thresholds means millions more people will pay higher rates as salaries rise with inflation.
LINKS
https://beautiful-jemison.213-165-92-225.plesk.page/autumn-statement-2023-what-are-the-key-points/
https://beautiful-jemison.213-165-92-225.plesk.page/jeremy-hunt-tells-people-to-find-a-job-or-see-their-benefits-stopped/
https://beautiful-jemison.213-165-92-225.plesk.page/uk-growth-forecasts-downgraded-for-next-two-years/
https://beautiful-jemison.213-165-92-225.plesk.page/pensions-overhaul-in-autumn-statement-will-cost-workers-tens-of-thousands-says-ex-pensions-minister/
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https://beautiful-jemison.213-165-92-225.plesk.page/autumn-statement-jeremy-hunt-looks-to-cut-uk-taxes-and-turbo-charge-growth/
https://beautiful-jemison.213-165-92-225.plesk.page/autumn-statement-latest-what-businesses-want-from-jeremy-hunt/