Explainer: All you need to know about the upcoming by-elections
Three by-elections are taking place this month and the results will offer up key insights into the public and their concerns ahead of a general election, tipped for October.
The elections are set to test Rishi Sunak’s leadership as the Tories are tipped to lose both their seats to Labour. The real interest for the Conservative Party will be in seeing how many of their traditional voters switch to Reform UK. If it’s a significant amount, the party could see itself moving further to the right to bring back supporters to the Tories.
Voters will go to the polls in Tory-held Wellingborough and Kingswood this week, while later this month ballots will open in the Labour seat of Rochdale.
Where are the by-elections being held?
Wellingborough is a market town in Northamptonshire, around 65 miles from London. The area is seen as an aspirational quarter of Middle England – dubbed the so-called ‘Blue Wall’.
While Kingswood is a town in Gloucestershire, just a few miles outside Bristol. It has swung between Tory and Labour, but the former Conservative MP held an 11,000-strong majority.
Why are the by-elections happening?
Wellingborough’s by-election is taking place after former Conservative MP Peter Bone was suspended from Parliament after being found to have bullied a staff member. More than 10 per cent of his voters then opted to ‘recall’ him, meaning a by-election has to be held. He has also faced a sexual misconduct investigation.
In Kingswood, which will be abolished under new constituency boundaries at the next general election, former Tort net zero tsar Chris Skidmore resigned in protest against the government’s plans to boost oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
When are they being held?
The ballots in Wellingborough – with a Conservative majority of 18,540 – and Kingswood will take place on Thursday, February 15, with results expected early Friday morning.
Who is standing?
Wellingborough candidates
Helen Harrison is standing for the Conservatives in Wellingborough. A local councillor, she is also the partner of former MP Bone, who won the seat in 2005.
Labour’s candidate is Northamptonshire-raised charity worker Gen Kitchen, while the Lib Dems are fielding former police inspector and now care worker, Ana Savage Gunn.
Candidates are also standing for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, Refom UK, Britain First, the Green Party, and four independents.
Kingswood candidates
The Conservative candidate in Kingswood is Sam Bromiley, a social worker, who is the current leader of the Tory group on South Gloucestershire Council.
Former mayor of Lewisham, southeast London, Damien Egan, is the Labour candidate. He lived in the area as a child, where he lived in temporary accommodation.
Local councillor Andrew Brown is standing for the Lib Dems. Reform and the Green Party are also fielding candidates.
What are the consequences of the February by-elections?
The two Tory by-elections will be watched closely and will likely prove to be another electoral test for Rishi Sunak’s government.
If Labour can win Kingswood and Wellingborough from the Tories, it will be seen as a major boost to Sir Keir Starmer ahead of the general election.
A third by-election will take place later this month in the Labour-held town of Rochdale – Greater Manchester. The seat is up for grabs following the death of the Labour MP who had held the seat since 2017.
Labour’s candidate to replace him has been dropped by the party after comments he made over the Middle Eastern conflict. It means Labour will not hold on to the seat, and it will be interesting to see who takes the area.
For Sunak, a triple loss could prompt more calls for the PM to be replaced. Whilst there have been rumblings from some Tory MPs, Sunak has been able to shake off a real election challenge.
If the party sees more of a split result, it could offer a small glimmer of hope to the Tory party.