Cliff Notes – Will Hamas really give up power?

Hamas has expressed a willingness to transfer governance of Gaza to another Palestinian entity, potentially the Palestinian Authority, amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations led by Egypt and Qatar.
Analysts remain sceptical about the likelihood of Hamas voluntarily surrendering power, particularly due to its military capabilities and the Israeli government’s stance against Palestinian self-rule.
The absence of a viable alternative governance structure in Gaza complicates the situation, as Israel shows little interest in supporting any Palestinian political entity that could replace Hamas.

Will Hamas really give up power?

Who will run the Gaza Strip in the future? It’s long been one of the sticking points in ceasefire talks to end the 18-month-long conflict in the coastal enclave. And this week, the question appeared to become relevant once again.

An anonymous, senior Palestinian official, familiar with ceasefire negotiations between Israel and the Gaza-based militant group Hamas, told British broadcaster BBC that “Hamas has signalled its readiness to hand over governance of Gaza to any Palestinian entity agreed upon ‘at the national and regional level’.”

The official told the BBC that this could be the Palestinian Authority, or PA, which runs the occupied West Bank, or a newly formed body of some kind. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said he rules out any role for the PA in Gaza.

The comments came in the context of ongoing, indirect ceasefire negotiations being led by Egypt and Qatar. According to the official who spoke to the BBC, the new ceasefire proposal “envisages a truce lasting between five and seven years, the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, a formal end to the war, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.”

Anti-Hamas chants heard at rare protest in Gaza

18 months of war

Since the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas on Israel that resulted in the deaths of around 1,200 people and the kidnapping of over 200, Israel has been conducting a retaliatory military mission in Gaza. The Israeli military assault has caused the deaths of over 51,266 people, according to the Health Ministry in Gaza, which is run by Hamas, with nearly a third of the dead under the age of 18. The UN has said these death and casualty numbers are reliable and that there could in fact be many more dead, as many bodies remain buried under rubble.

Hamas is classified as a terrorist group by Israel, the US, Germany and other countries.

One thing seems clear: Hamas is under increasing pressure inside the enclave, according to Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, a newspaper run by the PA. The media outlet, which regularly criticizes Hamas because the PA sees the group as an antagonistic competitor, noted the increasing number of demonstrations during which protesters demanded Hamas’ expulsion from Gaza.

Previously, Hamas cracked down on such dissent. But as the BBC noted, “some of the more recent protests suggest that civilians, driven to the edge of madness by a year and a half of Israeli bombardment, are losing their fear of Hamas.”

Al-Hayat Al-Jadida newspaper also suggested that Iran, which has supported Hamas in the recent past, will soon be giving up on its various allies in the region, due to renewed nuclear negotiations with the US. This would weaken Hamas further.

Hamas surrender seems unlikely

But is Hamas’ power really fading? A voluntary, substantial surrender of power by Hamas seems unlikely, said Peter Lintl, an expert on the Middle East at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The biggest hurdle to that is the demilitarization of the group that Israel is demanding, he said. On the other hand, Lintl could imagine Hamas being prepared to pass on political power to a technocratic government of sorts.

“But that Hamas would allow for its own disarmament seems doubtful to me,” Lintl told DW. “And with that comes the question of who would be responsible for internal and external security if Hamas does retain its weapons. They would probably be stronger than any armed state security.”

Marcus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s regional project for peace and security in the Middle East, is also sceptical about the idea of Hamas voluntarily giving up power. It is possible that Hamas might leave Gaza, but then the question is who would take their place, he asked.

“Inside the Gaza Strip itself there really isn’t any alternative,” said Schnieder, who is based in Beirut. “The only viable solution would be the Palestinian Authority. But Israel has been blocking that for a year and a half.”

No obvious alternatives to Hamas

It’s also important to remember that, despite the different leaderships, Gaza and the occupied West Bank are supposed to be part of the same political entity. “It’s hard to imagine both being governed by different parties in the long term,” Schneider noted.

It’s difficult to know what an alternative to Hamas would look like right now, Lintl agreed. Perhaps under a different Israeli government there might be room for compromise. “But the current Israeli government is opposed to Palestinian self-rule — and clearly also opposed to any Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip,” he explained.

In fact, the Israeli government is presently advocating for renewed Israeli settlement in Gaza. Israel withdrew its settlements from Gaza in 2005; they had previously been there for almost four decades. Now it seems to be thinking about putting them back. At the very least, the Israeli government wants to maintain large and permanent “buffer zones” in Gaza. These currently make up around 30% of the whole of Gaza, said Lintl.

For Palestinians living in Gaza, this has only deepened their existing fears about being forcibly expelled from the territory altogether.

Lintl doesn’t think it’s very likely that the Israeli government would agree to some new kind of Palestinian self-rule in Gaza either, should Hamas voluntarily give up power.

Given Israeli politics over the past 18 months, it’s clear that Israel has no interest whatsoever in the formation of a new Palestinian political entity, no matter how it was created or who was involved in it, Schnieder confirmed.

“They could have been talking about alternatives since the beginning of the war,” he pointed out. “But that didn’t happen. From Israel’s side, there’s absolutely no need for a political alternative.”