• On Sunday, Lithuanians will vote in the second and final round of parliamentary votes
• Ruling conservative party still in the race despite left-leaning parties making gains in the first round
• Goverment have faced challenges including political scandals, influx of migrants

Lithuania’s crucial parliamentary elections: What to watch for in the final round

On Sunday, Lithuanians will head to the polls for the second and final round of parliamentary elections, with the conservative ruling party still in the race following the first round, which saw gains for the left-leaning opposition.

Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė’s government, in power since 2020, has faced challenges from strict COVID-19 measures, political scandals involving key cabinet members, and an influx of migrants from neighbouring Belarus, all of which have impacted its popularity.

The elections take place against the backdrop of heightened tensions due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, raising concerns about Moscow’s intentions in the strategically significant Baltic region.

This vote will determine the political landscape for the next four years. While analysts anticipate a potential shift to the left, they predict minimal changes to Lithuania’s foreign policy, as the country remains a committed supporter of Ukraine and a member of both the European Union and NATO.

Voters will choose between the top candidates from the first round in various electoral districts, completing the 141-seat parliament, or Seimas. In the first round, the opposition Social Democrats, led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, secured 20 out of the initial 70 seats, edging out Šimonytė’s Homeland Union party by two seats.

Blinkevičiūtė has indicated that she aims to form a coalition with the centre-left Democratic Union, which won eight seats, along with a smaller third party. Together, these three parties currently hold a total of 34 seats and have pledged mutual support for their candidates in the second round.

However, the centre-left coalition’s stability may hinge on the performance of the Nemuno Aušra party, which came in third in the first round with 15 seats. Its leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, resigned earlier this year due to antisemitic remarks, leaving the party viewed with suspicion by many. A strong result for Nemuno Aušra could potentially enable the ruling party to form a minority government.