Will the Rwanda Bill pass? Which MPs are voting against it?
Rishi Sunak faced a big challenge to his authority on Tuesday night when around 60 MPs went against him on two changes to his Rwanda bill. The situation got worse as three junior members of his Government, Lee Anderson, and Brendan Clarke-Smith quit and Jane Stevenson was sacked for supporting the amendments.
More rebellious changes are set for votes on Wednesday, and after that, the bill will have its final vote in the Commons before moving to the House of Lords. People are now wondering if any of the 60 or so rebellious Tory MPs will try to stop the bill from passing completely.
How many rebels would it take to stop the Rwanda bill?
Opposition parties like Labour, the SNP, and the Liberal Democrats plan to vote against the Rwanda bill on Wednesday. So, it’s mainly up to the Conservative MPs to make sure the bill passes. Surprisingly, only a few dozen of them need to rebel to block the bill.
In Parliament, there are 650 MPs, but some don’t vote – like the 7 Sinn Fein MPs, the Speaker, and his four deputies. Also, four tellers don’t vote; they just count the ayes and noes. Considering this, a bill needs 316 votes for a simple majority to pass in the Commons.
The Conservative Party has 349 MPs, but one has been asked to stay away. So, only 33 Tory MPs need to rebel to stop a bill. But, this doesn’t consider MPs who abstain for various reasons like being away on business, being sick, or opposing the legislation.
There are also 18 independent MPs, with seven being former Conservatives who lost the party whip. Although they’re not bound to vote with their former party, some may still support the Conservatives, while others might not vote at all. Some of these MPs are staying away due to ongoing investigations, like Crispin Blunt, who was arrested last year.
Moreover, two seats are vacant in the Commons due to pending by-elections. Considering all these factors, the actual number of rebels needed to block Sunak’s Rwanda bill could be much lower, possibly as low as 28.
The Government’s whips keep track of how MPs plan to vote and try to manage those thinking of rebelling or abstaining to make sure the legislation passes.
Which Tory MPs are likely to go against the Rwanda bill?
On Tuesday evening, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faced his biggest rebellion since taking office, as 60 Tory MPs went against the party to vote on changes to the Rwanda bill. Now, the question is how many of these MPs will vote against the entire bill during its third reading on Wednesday.
Some MPs have already said they’ll vote against the bill if the rebel changes, meant to make it stronger, don’t get approved. However, none of these changes have passed yet, and it seems unlikely they will.
So, these MPs are expected to vote against the Rwanda bill at its third reading:
- Miriam Cates, New Conservatives co-chair
- Danny Kruger, New Conservatives co-chair
- Robert Jenrick, former immigration minister
- Suella Braverman, former home secretary
- Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, former Cabinet minister
- Sir Simon Clarke, former Cabinet minister
- Sir John Hayes, Common Sense Group chair
- Jonathan Gullis, former minister
- Sarah Dines, former minister
- Marco Longhi, MP for Dudley North
- Nick Fletcher, MP for Don Valley
The Telegraph spoke to four other Tory MPs who have indicated that they plan to vote against the Rwanda Bill.
It suggests that so far at least 15 MPs could vote against the Bill at its third reading, which is still below the threshold needed to stop it passing.
But more MPs who rebelled on the amendments could join this number to vote against the bill.
But, despite yesterday’s blow, it’s expected the PM is on track to pass his controversial Rwanda laws through the Commons.
What time is the vote on the Rwanda bill?
MPs will scrutinise the bill and amendments on Tuesday and Wednesday as part of the committee stage, with debates and votes on the amendments. These votes could start at around 7.30 pm and there are likely to be several, but there is no definitive time for results.
