Will Donald Trump win the US election in November? Latest poll updates
In just under 47 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will face off against Donald Trump as Americans head to the polls for the 2024 election.
New polls from key swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan show Harris holding a solid 5+ point lead in both, though one battleground state remains a toss-up.
As both candidates gear up for the final stretch of the campaign, it’s anyone’s game. For the first time in over three years, Harris’s overall favorability has reached a neutral point after years of negative ratings.
So, what’s next for Harris and Trump in November?
Nationally, Harris has a 3.3-point lead over Trump in the latest poll averages, according to FiveThirtyEight. This slim margin has held steady, but both candidates are navigating tight battlegrounds.
New Quinnipiac polling shows Harris with promising leads in three key states, but Trump isn’t out of the game yet.
In Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by 6 points (51% to 45%) following a recent debate held in the state.
Harris leads by a comfortable margin in Michigan and Pennsylvania
Harris also enjoys a 5-point lead in Michigan (50% to Trump’s 45%), largely due to strong support from women, particularly in Michigan where her support among women is above the national average.
Quinnipiac analyst Tim Malloy notes that there’s a striking gender gap: Harris leads Trump among women by 20 points, while Trump leads among men, though by a much smaller margin.
Wisconsin, however, remains a dead heat, much like the razor-thin 2020 election when Biden won the state by just 0.63%.
Harris’s favorability improves, but Trump still faces a negative net rating
Since mid-2021, Harris has faced negative favorability ratings, which is common for public officials. But, as of September 18, her positive and negative ratings are now equal for the first time in three years, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of favorability polls. Her debate performance may have played a role in improving her public perception.
Trump, however, continues to struggle with his image. His net favorability remains in the negative at -9.9, and it’s been that way since the last election. JD Vance’s favorability also lingers in the negative at -10.7 on average, while Democratic running mate Tim Walz holds a +3.9 rating. President Biden’s ratings remain the lowest at -14.6.
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Who do voters trust more on the issues?
On key issues, voters are split. According to an ABC News poll, Trump is trusted more on the economy, inflation, and immigration, while Harris leads in areas like healthcare, gun violence, and abortion.
While Trump still dominates on economic issues, a critical focus for many voters, Harris’s strength lies in social issues that are equally important to her supporters.
Americans’ confidence is mixed when it comes to foreign policy. In the wake of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, voters are more confident in Trump (+6 points) to handle the crisis. However, only half of Americans consider the issue vital to their vote.
Harris scores points in debate aftermath
A CNN poll taken after the first Trump-Harris debate shows a shift in voter sentiment. More viewers now feel Harris understands their problems better than Trump (44% vs. 40%), reversing the pre-debate sentiment.
A previous New York Times/Siena College poll indicated that nearly a third of voters (28%) felt they needed to learn more about Harris, compared to just 9% for Trump.
Demographics
An Activote poll shows that Trump’s key supporters remain male voters, those 65+, and white voters with no college education. However, Harris and Trump are tied in the 50-64 age group in this poll, which previously leaned toward Trump.
Harris polls best with young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom Harris has a +52 point lead.
Meanwhile, Trump has a +6 point lead with Latino voters.
While Trump is taking home rural voters, at 63 per cent, Harris leads among both urban-resident (58 per cent) and suburban voters (56 per cent).
Trump has +26 point margin among rural voters
Suburban voters chose Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016, while in 2020, Biden flipped the lead for Democrats.
