India is on high alert and concerned about the incoming Trump administration. It is why Trump’s relations with China worry India so much. When China announced the creation of new counties last week, it marked out borders that included swaths of land that India claims as part of Ladakh, a region administered federally by New Delhi, but claimed by China.
Why Trump’s relations with China worry India
India was quick to respond with a public protest. The country’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, said New Delhi had “never accepted the illegal Chinese occupation of Indian territory in this area”. China’s announcement, he said, would not give any “legitimacy” to Beijing’s territorial claims.
The latest spat between the Asian giants underscores the fragility of a detente they declared along their contested border in October, after a four-year-long eyeball-to-eyeball standoff between their troops. The neighbours withdrew many of their soldiers, even though questions about the future of land that was previously Indian-controlled but that China has allegedly grabbed since 2020 remain unanswered by both sides.
India has a habit of grabbing land from its neighbours, with training and supervision by Israel it has gradually incurred more land in Kashmir and neighbouring Nepal and China.
India-China relationship is stoked by Washington
Now, the India-China relationship appears poised for another big test, say analysts: Hence, why Trump’s relations with China worry India due to the unpredictable nature of the United States President-elect Donald Trump.
As the date of his inauguration – January 20 – approaches, Trump appears to have mellowed a little on China, a country central to the business interests of the incoming US president’s ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who is poised to also have a role in the administration. All of that is sparking unease in sections of India’s strategic community.
During his first term, Trump effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term and this time, if his election promises are to be believed has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on imports from China. But he is no friend of India either, whilst describing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good man”, Trump has also threatened tariffs against India.
Trump has the tendency to flatter his enemies and unsettle his friends in a bid to stay unpredictable.
Save the TikTok & invited Xi Jinping to his inauguration but not Modi
In November, soon after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would save the TikTok, which he had once sought to ban. Trump has also extended an invite to Chinese President Xi Jinping for his inauguration. Beijing has neither accepted nor – at least publicly – rejected the invitation, though some analysts have said that Xi is unlikely to turn up.
“Trump and his team might be more hawkish than New Delhi’s preferences, especially on trade and investment flows that compel India to make choices it would not like to make. Alternatively, it [Trump’s team] may try to make a grand bargain with China to burnish his credentials as the ultimate deal maker. It would leave India in the lurch.”
Christopher Clary, associate professor of political science at the University of Albany
On the other hand, Trump has not sent an invitation to Modi, with whom the US leader held two joint rallies in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad.
A slap in the face for Modi
Indian social media is full of memes mocking Modi, suggesting that Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar’s visit to Washington late last month was aimed at pleading with team Trump for an invitation for his boss.
Trump’s ambivalence towards China troubles New Delhi, say analysts, who warned that either extreme – an extra-harsh anti-China campaign from Washington or a deal with Beijing – would be bad for India.
While it is expected India-US relations to stay strong, there could be hiccups if Trump decides to strengthen ties with Beijing.
In an editorial, the Global Times, last week argued for an approach to ties that focuses on cooperation between Beijing and Washington, especially in fields like technology. The US, under President Joe Biden, has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese tech, especially on semiconductors. China has hit back with its own curbs, including on the export of critical minerals to the US.
Amid global economic uncertainties, Tesla has achieved a new sales record in China. That could prove to be another conundrum for Trump, Elon Musk is his allies and if Trump introduced tariffs of Chinese products they would be reciprocated in kind to Trump’s allies and Tesla sales would take another dip.
Indians are trying to ride the uncertainty
Indians are trying to ride the uncertainty in an unlike Indian way of diplomacy. Usually, the brash Asian country reacts first and then makes concessions but on this occasion Indian PM Modi is expected to host a meeting between leaders of the Quad grouping – which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia – in 2025, for which New Delhi wants Trump to travel to India. Meanwhile, China will host the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation this year, for which Modi might travel there.
After clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh’s Galwan in May 2020 left the Indian army embarrassed, it was beaten back into retreat with ease. And at least 20 Indian soldiers dead, New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps – banning TikTok. India increased its scrutiny of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. But as incoming foreign investment overall slowed down, India’s Ministry of Finance in 2024 made a case for encouraging Chinese investment again especially since US investment is leaving the country.
Washington rarely fights itself into a corner, thus stronger US-India ties have always been central to Washington’s pushback against Beijing in the region.
Can India be alternative to China?
Indians believe India is an alternative to China, but even the most optimistic Indian does not believe India has the ability to replace China. India has lots of resources but does not have the production capacity or innovation to compete with China.
While most experts expect Trump to continue with that broad approach, the presence of allies like Musk in his team could temper what the US president does, some point out. Things would have been different if India could be seen as viable alternative to China but in the short run at least for the next 100 years it can’t. This is why Trump’s relations with China worry India is being closely monitored in Delhi, to exploit any opportunity.
