Vox is the party that rises the most after the dana

The latest survey of the 40dB institute. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER shows that the party that rises the most after the devastating damage in Valencia is Vox, with almost three percentage points more than in the previous barometer. The party chaired by Santiago Abascal achieved 13.1% in vote estimates, which represents an improvement of almost one point compared to the result obtained in the general elections of July 2023. The PP, which in April reached an estimate of vote 2.4 points higher than the percentage obtained at the polls (33.1%), increasing its advantage over the PSOE to five and a half points, it would now obtain the same result as 23-J, and the socialists reduce to 3.4 points its distance from the first political force. Sumar continues to fall after the resignation of its parliamentary spokesperson, Íñigo Errejón, on October 24, due to sexist and humiliating attitudes: it would lose more than seven points since the general elections, when its ballots allowed the coalition government to be reissued. Podemos, which broke away from the amalgamation of parties to the left of the PSOE in December of last year, is, with 2.8% estimated vote, slightly below Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), the political brand. of the agitator Alvise Pérez.

By blocks, the PP and Vox would add up to 46.4% in estimated votes (49.5% if the support of SALF is added); and the PSOE, Sumar and Podemos, 37.7%. The voting intention of the rest of the parties that allowed the current Executive chaired by Pedro Sánchez to be formed (Junts, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG and CC) stands at 7%, the same percentage that they gathered in the general elections of 23- J. You can see all the survey data here.

The survey (2,500 interviews online) took place between November 22 and December 3. In that period, the management of the dana captured a good part of the political debate; The Supreme Court summoned former socialist minister José Luis Ábalos to testify as a defendant; the businessman Víctor de Aldama, who was released from prison after confirming the criminal acts for which he was accused, launched, without evidence, serious accusations against the Government; Socialist Juan Lobato resigned as general secretary of the party in Madrid after Abc revealed that he had registered before a notary the conversation held with a senior official at La Moncloa about an email in the case that affects the partner of the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and for which the State Attorney General remains charged. During those days, the federal congress of the PSOE was also held, where Sánchez revalidated his fourth term as general secretary of the party. Vox continued its offensive to criminalize immigration, pressuring the PP to boycott negotiations with the Government on this matter, and one of its deputies, Manuel Mariscal, even said in Parliament that the Franco dictatorship had been a period of “progress.” and reconciliation.”

The vote transfer data shows that Vox is the party with the most loyal voters: it retains 80.3% of its support from the July 2023 general elections; it gives 4.8% to the PP and almost 8% to SALF. The PP, which in the previous barometer retained 84% of its voters from 23-J, now drops to 77.6%, with most of its leaks being to the formation of Abascal (8.8%) and Alvise Pérez (3%). Despite the scandal of Ábalos case and Aldama’s accusations, the PSOE maintains the same level of voting loyalty from the November poll (73%), although transfers to the PP increase (5.2%) and they have a high percentage of undecided and white or null votes (12% in total). The confusion of the Sumar voter is evident in the numbers: he only retains 38.7% of his support from the general elections, which is 3.3 percentage points less than in the previous barometer, and he would give in if the elections were held Today, 28.3% of their ballots go to Podemos and another 10.3% to the PSOE.

Women have a higher percentage of indecision (24%, adding the abstentionists and the white or null vote, that is, almost three points more than men) and, if in the November barometer, their intention to vote for the Socialists was 2.3 points higher than the PP, now the Popular Party is the first force in the female electorate (25.4%). After the Errejón scandal due to sexist attitudes, the intention to vote for Sumar among women is at its lowest level: 3.7%. The PSOE is the favorite brand in the male electorate (seven points above the popular ones) and Núñez Feijóo’s party barely scores three tenths more (17.4%) than Abascal’s (17.1%) among men. Mobilization, that is, the probability of going to vote if the elections were held now, is almost two points higher among women.

By age, in the 18 to 24 age group, political disaffection wins, with almost 30%, that is, abstention, the undecided and those who today would vote blank or null; Next is Vox, which would obtain 29.9% of the support; the PSOE (20%) and the PP (11.2%). As all the barometers of the 40dB institute have shown, the preference for Abascal’s party decreases as age advances (barely 9% among those over 65), just the opposite of what happens to the PP, which has its best percentage of voting intention among pensioners (29.6%). Among PSOE voters there are not so many differences according to age and they prevail over the popular ones in the bands that range from 25 to 34 years old and between 45 and 64.

The study shows great differences according to the territories. In Andalusia, which contributes 61 deputies to Congress, the PSOE and the PP tie with 25.6% of voting intention each. The socialists have been recovering ground in the community, where the popular Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla currently governs with an absolute majority. In the Valencian Community, the survey after the devastation of the Dana, shows practically a tie between the socialists and the popular ones, who govern alone, although the majority group (30.7%) is that of the undecided, abstentionists and those who They would vote blank or null. The rise of Vox (13.8%) and SALF (5.2%) is also observed. Sumar and Podemos together would gather 10.4% of the votes in the region.

In the Community of Madrid, the advantage of Feijóo’s party over the PSOE is six points. In Galicia, which held regional elections last February, 7.6. In Catalonia, where the PSC was the leading force in last May’s elections, the nationalists are again ahead, with almost four and a half percentage points more in voting intention than the socialists, who, in turn, obtain nine points more than the popular ones. In the Basque Country, the PP barely reaches 4%. In Castilla y León, the order is reversed compared to the previous poll, with the PP taking the lead with 27.8% of voting intention, seven points more than the Socialists.