Upcoming by-elections and the key clues they might offer ahead of the general election. Two key polls will take place this week, but what will they reveal?
This month will see three by-elections take place, in what will likely be another serious test for Rishi Sunak and his government.
Voters will head to the polls this week in two Tory-held areas – Wellingborough and Kingswood., whilst ballots for Labour’s Rochdale will open later in the month.
Will Tories lose by-elections this week?
If the Conservatives do lose their Kingswood and Wellingborough seats, it would surpass their record for by-election defeats in a single parliament. There is also a chance the Tories could suffer their biggest loss to Labour yet – as Labour is tipped to secure both seats.
But it’s no longer clear cut that Labour will win the seats, recent political divisions within the party, and issues around topics such as the Middle East conflict and ditching their green investment pledge, could see an impact on Labour’s polling.
One of the key insights to the by-elections will be understanding just how these topics will affect the Labour voters and whether is it enough for them to consider voting elsewhere.
The Conservative Party will expect to lose both seats to Labour, but more importantly, they will see how many of their followers switch to Reform UK – and could see the current Conservative government swing further to the right.
Reform UK is hoping they will be able to pick up disenchanted Conservatives, who are looking for a tougher stance on things such as small boat crossings.
‘Recent by-election woes’
In May 2021, the Conservatives won a by-election, gaining Hartlepool from Labour. But the joy quickly died, when just a month later, the Lib Dems took the traditional Tories area of Chesham & Amersham.
It got worse, when the then North Shropshire MP Owen Paterson resigned, and a 23,000-vote lead evaporated with an almost record-breaking 34-point swing against the Conservatives.
Since then, the Tories have lost six more by-elections. Two to the Lib Dems, four to Labour – all with substantial swings. It has meant the party has lost 7 seats and it doesn’t look like the trend is about to buck anytime soon.
A look at Wellingborough
The Wellingborough contest arose due to Peter Bone, elected in 2005, being found guilty of inappropriate conduct toward a staff member. Subsequently, he was suspended from the House of Commons and compelled to resign following a recall petition signed by his constituents.
Bone was a prominent figure in the Vote Leave campaign, and had secured a Tory majority of 18,540 votes, holding a 36-point lead over Labour.
A required 18-point swing seems attainable for Labour, provided internal party disagreements don’t dissuade its supporters.
Turnout will be another issue for the Tories. In October, they lost Tamworth to Labour, with only 35.9% of the electorate participating, marking the lowest turnout since 1945 for a seat change.
It’s not clear if the loss was due to the Tory voters not turning out, but it certainly seems to have played a role in it. The introduction of voter ID appeared to affect Tory voters as well, as many elderly voters didn’t have the required ID or didn’t know of the changes.
Lack of interest has become a bit of a feature of by-elections in this parliament, an average 29-point drop in turnout compared with the previous general election.
If Wellingborough bucks the trend, with its 64% turnout in 2019, it’s possible that Conservatives, rather than abstaining, have opted to back Reform in a constituency where 63% voted to leave the EU in 2016.
A look at the Kingswood by-election
Kingswood presents a greater vulnerability for the Conservatives, with the by-election not triggered by an MP’s defiance but rather by internal party discord.
Chris Skidmore, a former Cabinet Minister for Energy, resigned due to disagreement with the government’s proposal to issue more licenses for oil and gas extraction.
Skidmore, who had turned what was once a Labour stronghold into a Conservative seat, managed to significantly increase his majority over Labour from 5.1% in 2010 to 22.8% last time. Conversely, Labour’s share of the vote declined in three out of the last four general elections.
However, Labour’s Damien Egan needs only an 11.4-point swing, smaller than that indicated by national polls. Egan’s confidence is evident in his resignation from the position of Mayor of Lewisham to contest a seat that, due to boundary changes, will vanish in a few months.
But it makes sense when you find out he has already been chosen as the candidate for the new Bristol North East parliamentary constituency, where it is estimated that Labour would have emerged victorious in the 2019 election.
As in the past, Reform is putting forward a candidate in a constituency where UKIP garnered 15% of the vote in the 2015 election, securing third place and surpassing the Liberal Democrats, who were grappling with a hangover from the post-coalition government.
The Liberal Democrats have in recent months been implicated in the Post Office scandal – a scandal that led to widespread backlash in the UK.
The party’s leader, Sir Ed Davey (who held ministerial responsibility for the Post Office at that time) failed to engage with campaigner Alan Bates during the time – something that opposition parties have used against the Lib Dem leader.
Experts suggest the party could lose votes due to the leader’s tie to the miscarriage of justice.
National polls suggest Libe Dems and Reform enjoy similar levels of national support, vying for third place, in Kingswood. The remaining two candidates represent the Greens and UKIP, respectively.
With Labour ditching its key £28bn spending commitment on environmental issues, the green vote, which usually hovers around 2% in the constituency, could see an upsurge fueled by defections from disillusioned Labour supporters and disappointed Liberal Democrats.
Similarly, UKIP’s presence broadens the options for hard Brexit support and might diminish support for Reform.
The results for both these key by-elections are expected to be in during the early hours of Friday. With a general election later this year, the results of these elections will offer key insights into the trajectory of change.