UK General Election 2024: Landslide or supermajority? What’s the difference?
In the lead-up to today – the UK general election – many newspapers, political commentators and polling experts have talked about Labour winning a landslide majority similar to Tony Blair’s 1997 win or a supermajority – that according to some will wipe out the Conservative Party.
The polls predict: a landslide or supermajority?
An MRP prediction from Survation said it was 99% certain that Labour would win about 484 seats, up astronomically from 206. Even the “lower end” of expectations gave Labour 447 seats, leaving the Tories on a mid-point of just 64, down vertiginously from 345.
YouGov projected Labour would win 431 seats with a majority of 212 – the biggest for any single party since 1832. More in Common suggested Rishi Sunak’s party would have 126 seats and put Labour on 430.
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What’s the difference between a landslide win and a Labour supermajority?
A moderate majority of 0-80 seats
According to the polls, this is the least likely scenario for a Labour majority, implying that, at best, Starmer would have matched Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory, which was the largest Tory majority since 1987. If the majority is on the lower end of this range, Starmer could face significant challenges within his party on major issues such as workers’ rights, NHS reform, and civil liberties. The smaller the majority, the harder it will be for the administration to pass new legislation.
A landslide win of 80-179 seats
Such a result would be a tremendous victory for Labour, potentially echoing Tony Blair’s historic landslide in 1997. Although Labour might lose a few seats, such as Thangam Debbonaire’s Bristol Central constituency, which faces a challenge from the Greens, securing a majority of this size would be a substantial boost. It would also make it relatively easy for Labour to pass a significant amount of legislation through the Commons.
Luke Tryl, of More In Common, said: “The fact that I can say Ed Davey’s chance of being leader of the opposition isn’t zero is extraordinary. Such a result will be predominated with questions over the future of the Tories and how strong an opposition they could form.”
A ‘supermajority’ of more than 179 seats
If Starmer achieves what some (mainly Conservatives) call a “supermajority,” he would make history by surpassing Blair’s 1997 landslide victory, transforming his party from a record defeat to a dramatic triumph in just one term. This would allow him to pass controversial legislation with ease.
However, a majority of this magnitude means Labour would need to unite a broad coalition of constituencies – from the most pro-immigration to the most anti-immigration – making it challenging to keep all MPs satisfied and maintain voter support in the next election five years later.
As with any government, the larger the prime minister’s majority, the more potential for significant rebellions. With a majority exceeding 200, many Labour candidates might have won their seats with smaller margins over their rivals, making a supermajority both a blessing and a curse for Starmer.
In the event of a “supermajority” and a corresponding Conservative collapse, Starmer could enjoy months or even years of watching the Tory party scramble to rebrand itself, including a likely contentious leadership contest.
He would also hope for a quick economic improvement to enable substantive changes across the country, with investment and reform of public services after 14 years of Tory rule.
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