The Independent – Tories on just 82 seats? No wonder they’ve given up
A major poll for The Independent suggested Rishi Sunak would lead the Conservatives to the worst defeat in history with only 82 seats. Millions of people across the country are heading to polling stations to vote in a general election that could deliver the biggest shake-up of British politics.
Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak join millions voting across UK today
Millions of people across the country are heading to polling stations to vote in a general election that could deliver the biggest shake-up of British politics.
A major poll for The Independent suggested Rishi Sunak would lead the Conservatives to the worst defeat in history with only 82 seats.
If the forecast is accurate, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and defence secretary Grant Shapps are among the veteran Conservatives set to be ousted.
Mr Sunak is reported to be fearful about losing his own seat in Richmond, but he insisted he was still in the fight after one of his closest allies, Mel Stride, appeared to concede the Tories were heading to a heavy defeat.
Election night: Everything to watch out for once the polls close
Election night starts the moment voting ends, with the exit poll at 10pm. At the last general election, in December 2019, the exit poll overestimated the Conservatives’ win by three seats. It underestimated them by four seats in 2017, and by 15 seats in 2015. In 2005 and in 2010, the exit poll got the number of the leading party’s seats exactly right, first Labour and then the Conservatives.
The size of Labour’s predicted majority will be compared instantly with the historical benchmarks: Tony Blair, 179 (1997); Stanley Baldwin, 209 (1924); David Lloyd George, 239 (1918); Stanley Baldwin, 243 (1935); Ramsay MacDonald, 493 (1931).
Then, there is a wait of about an hour and a half for the first declaration. At this point, the sensible thing to do would be to take a power nap – but everyone will discuss the exit poll on social media instead.
How bad could the general election result be for the Tories? Pollster John Curtice’s final prediction
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice gave a final prediction ahead of the polls opening in the general election.
British voters are heading to polling stations on Thursday to cast their ballots, six weeks after prime minister Rishi Sunak sought to surprise his opponents by calling the 4 July election earlier than expected.
Follow our politics blog for the latest general election updates
With Sir Keir Starmer’s party sustained its roughly 20-point lead in the polls over the course of the campaign, expert Prof Curtice shared his final thoughts in an opinion piece published before voting began at 7am on Thursday.
Today’s news summary – Paper Talk
If you are someone who reads every perspective of a story, here is a news summary of all of today’s front pages from today’s newspapers; summarised in a 2-minute read
Editorial 04 July 2024.
Thursday’s front pages report on election day! The papers declare their support for their political parties. In the latest blow to the Conservative Party, the Sun has backed Labour.
The pressure growing on US President Joe Biden to step aside also finds space on a few front pages ahead of a Friday interview and rally that the Biden team will help settle the nerves of donors and voters. The concerns over Biden’s fitness for office come following a disastrous TV debate.
The back pages lead on the England football team ahead of Saturday’s Euros Quarter-finals against Switzerland.
