- May local elections in England saw the Tories lose over 1000 seats and 48 councils
- Significant gains were made by Labour and smaller parties
- First vote where voter ID was required but it did not help the Tories
- Gains by smaller parties show climate crisis is important to the public
- Labour not on course for a majority win in the next general election
- Sir Keir recently refused to rule out a deal with Lib Dems
The Tories Lost At The Local Elections, But Labour Didn’t Exactly Win
Much has been made of the significant Tory losses during the England 2023 local elections, but it hasn’t exactly lined Labour up for a guaranteed general election majority win.
The local elections were carefully set near the coronation and for the first time, voters needed to bring ID to cast their vote. For many, it was hoped these could keep voters away, and potentially soften the blow for the government, who didn’t expect the results to be anything but painful. But they certainly didn’t think it would be as bad as it turned out for the parties.
“You know something’s gone wrong when the expectation-management figure becomes the reality,” sighed one Tory MP, on the 1000+ losses, writes Katy Balls.
“The party lost support to Labour in various “red wall” areas and to the Liberal Democrats in the traditional Tory shires”
Katy Balls, Spectator’s political editor
But despite the blatant attempts from the government to suppress the vote, those who did cast their ballots, let the government know exactly what it was thinking – ‘anyone but the Tories.’
The public is fed up with the Tories, they are fed up with wage cuts, run-down public services and the chaos the last few years have been. We have, yet another, unelected PM and the country is desperate to get him and his government out of power.
The local elections saw the Conservative Party lose more than 1000 seats and 48 councils. Labour picked up more than 500 seats and gained 22 more councils. Liberal Democrats have won 12 councils, and the Greens have taken control of a council for the first time.
Labour gains but a deal might need to be struck to defeat the tories
Sir Keir Stamer’s Labour made some really significant gains, especially in right-wing areas, but it’s not that surprising given his recent foray into more racist rhetoric around refugees and immigration. Whilst Labour is highlighting the positivity of the results, in reality, the vote share has only marginally increased compared to previous local elections, and Sir Keir is far behind Tony Blair’s position in the 1995 local elections that preceded his landslide 1997 general election win.
The seats Labour gained were partially shared with the Lib Dems, who had an incredible night, securing hundreds of Tory seats and negating some of Sir Keir’s achievements. The results do show progress for Labour (proving they can win back seats lost to Boris Johnson) but with smaller parties also making significant gains and a general election still a year away and amid a volatile domestic and international political scene, it seems impossible to know what lies ahead for Britain.
Starmer has remained resolute in his belief Labour can win an outright majority in the next general election, using Labour’s win in key battlegrounds to support his argument. But in a recent interview, there was a subtle acknowledgement that Labour is currently on track to become the largest party in 2024 without attaining an outright majority. He managed to carefully dodge questions about potential alliances with political rivals – the Lib Dems being the most likely. He refused to rule out an election deal on seven separate occasions and carefully avoided being dragged into hypothetical scenarios of possible political deals.
But considering only a year ago he loudly ruled out a deal his silence on a potential opposition deal speaks volumes. The results pave the way for a return of significant tactical anti-Conservative voting, and Starmer knows it.
The ELEction results show that the British public is saying – ‘ANYONE BUT THE TOries’
Voter turnout low highlighting voter disenfranchisement
Sir Keir will of course be eager to secure an outright majority, and with the general election still a year away, he still has time to build up the base.
Turnouts at the 2023 local elections appeared to be generally between 18-32% – which is not unusual for a local election, but the 18% mark is still considered low.
Introducing voter ID disproportionately affects the poorest the most and whilst this Tory tactic to make voting harder didn’t seem to do the Conservatives any favour, to a degree it did work as some areas recorded turnout as low as 18% – highlighting the voter disenfranchisement.
With disenfranchisement and increasing disengagement in politics, it’s clear the mood in Britain is low. Those who can vote, don’t know who to trust and can’t see the light at the end of this very dark Tory tunnel, and as the current economic conditions worsen, public morale sinks even further.
The general election is likely to be set for late 2024, and the general mood from the British voter is – ‘anyone but the Tories.’