The rise of Germany’s far-right AfD in Bavaria for the 2025 German elections is no surprise, they’ve been canvassing hard, but realistically, can they win it?
The short answer is No! Whilst the “Alternative für Deutschland” AfD popularity in Bavaria is growing, at present the CSU remains the dominant force. But I wouldn’t be too quick to write off the far-right rise in Bavaria.
The rise of Germany’s far-right AfD in Bavaria
All indications suggest the AfD might follow a similar path to the UK’s Reform Party. The party will be lurking in the shadows, looking to reel in any disenfranchised CSU supporters, looking for more radical action on the economy and immigration or even creating issues out of nothing, like Brexit!
AfD popularity in Bavaria
The AfD’s growing presence in Bavaria should not be overlooked. This election isn’t really about the AfD winning the Bundestag, they are simply laying the groundwork for the next German Federal Election (2029) in an eerily similar trend to the moves Reform UK have been making in Britain.
Why can’t they win it?
The AfD could see itself finishing in second place in Bavaria but it will struggle to grow its reach in the Bundestag (for now) due to other political parties ruling out any sort of coalition with the AfD.
But the far-right rise in Bavaria is not limited to just this election, they are playing the long game and planting a seed for next election, they are projected to get around 20% of the vote, that may get them some seats.
Remember it took Nigel Farage 5 times and a lot of help from Trump and Musk to get elected. As John Lithgow once said, ‘you resilient bastard! You’re still alive!’
John Lithgow – CliffHanger
They are here to establish their power, scoop up those who feel like they are being failed by the mainstream political elite and will have all eyes focused on the future.
The far-right across Europe is surging, but these elections are about laying the groundwork for what could be in four or five years.
