Michigan primaries: Protest vote gets Biden’s attention. What does it mean for the general election?
US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump both won their Michigan primaries but despite the victories, serious concerns have arisen for both campaigns as they head to a likely November rematch.
Biden’s victory wasn’t plain sailing, despite a comfortable win. Progressive voters made it clear via the “uncommitted” protest vote – they want Biden to change the USA’s course on Israel’s war in Gaza, if he doesn’t he could see a serious loss in support from young voters and Arab American democrats.
For Trump, his win also highlighted some cracks. A sizable portion of Republicans came out to vote against him – despite him being the clear favourite for the GOP nomination. And the fact it happened in Michigan – one of a few states that swung from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 will give the GOP a few concerns.
Both Biden and Trump will need a strong turnout in November if they are to be elected. By all accounts, polling suggests it will be a seriously tight race to the White House. Polls suggest many Americans are not particularly enthusiastic about either candidate and there are concerns over the age and mental fitness of both Trump and Biden.
Biden must make U-turn on Israel
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the primaries has been the “uncommitted” vote from Democrats unhappy with America’s role in supplying Israel with arms and not calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Ahead of the primaries, a coalition called Listen to Michigan asked Democrats unhappy with Biden’s handling of the war to vote “uncommitted” – to send a message to the White House that what happens in the coming days and weeks could upend an election still more eight months away.
Biden won’t win Michigan in November unless he changes course on Israel-Gaza
Biden won 81% of the vote, according to projections, but the “uncommitted” exceeded expectations with 13% – more than 100,000. That’s more than enough to get Biden’s attention.
His campaign will now be paying close attention to see if that result in the key swing state will spread nationwide.
“We know Joe Biden is going to be our nominee. So it’s a very, very significant outcome,” former Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, a supporter of the “uncommitted” effort, told CNN. “My worry was that this primary would happen, and the president wouldn’t get the message about how mad people are.”
The “uncommitted” campaign kept it simple. Its job is to convince Biden’s White House to seek a permanent ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Levin believes Biden won’t win Michigan in November unless he changes course and that message has been delivered to Biden through the “uncommitted” vote.
‘Swing state, every vote counts’
In a swing state, every vote counts and what becomes clear is that if Biden doesn’t change his course, he could help hand the White House back to Trump.
The problem for Biden is that the US is Israel’s closest ally. But if he’s serious about another four years in the top job he can’t afford to ignore their demands that he calls for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Michigan is home to America’s largest Arab-American population, and along with young voters, are deeply hurt by what they are witnessing in Gaza.
“If Biden doesn’t act now, and listen to the 80% of Democrats and the 66% of Americans that want a permanent ceasefire right now,” Leyla Elabed, manager of the “Listen to Michigan” campaign told the BBC before the primary, “it is going to be Biden, his administration and the Democratic Party that are going to be accountable for handing the White House to Trump in November.”
Biden has in recent weeks offered up some weak criticism of Israel’s conduct of the war, calling it “over the top”. He appears to have become annoyed with Israeli PM Benjamini Netanyahu and has warned Israel that it will lose international support if they continue with plans to invade Rafah.
So far, more than 30,000 people in Gaza have died. Many are sheltering in the North where lack of food, water, shelter and heat means a serious humanitarian crisis is looming.
Biden’s administration is still calling for a temporary ceasefire over Ramadan – that would include an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Biden says it’s not the right time for the permanent ceasefire – something that, like in the UK, does not reflect the opinion of the public.
For Trump, he sees Michigan as a state he can win back. Beyond the protest voting, polls suggest Trump outperforms Biden on the economy, and immigration is another important topic for voters.
On Thursday, Biden and Trump will both head to the border – a topic that could decide the election, BBC writes:
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will both travel to the US-Mexico border on Thursday, locked in a high-stakes political duel on an issue that could ultimately decide the US presidential election.
That border was crossed last year by 2.5 million undocumented migrants, an influx that has overwhelmed processing facilities and pushed social services in major American cities to the brink.
The day provides an opportunity for Mr Biden to try to convince voters he is serious about immigration, while Mr Trump’s own trip is yet another chance to shine a spotlight on an issue that has been the central focus of his political career.
BBC
Beyond the border, other issues exist for both candidates – who haven’t yet secured their nominations but it looks increasingly likely they will. It’s a rematch America mostly doesn’t want.
The age and mental fitness of both Biden and Trump will continue to be a talking point up until the election as both have found themselves in embarrassing gaffes that question how competent either candidate is for such a demanding job.
Until then, let’s all keep an eye out for more protest votes. If Americans can keep protest voting, they may be able to force the president to change the course of this devastating war and call for an immediate ceasefire.