Kazakhstan crisis

Kazakhstan pays the price for ignoring public discontent 

The ongoing crisis in Kazakhstan is pushing the government into increased political dependence on Russia, according to an article from the Financial Times. 

The nationwide unrest last week, which started with protests that rapidly spread, showed the reforms of the past 30 years have still failed to improve the lives of many people. 

What started as protests over a rapid fuel price hike quickly saw other political movements and activists spring up – demanding political and economic changes and peaceful protests were quickly hijacked by ‘criminal groups’. 

President Tokayev gave order to shoot to kill “terrorists” as a way to deal with the unrest. 

The violent suppression of the protests is a sign of a power struggle within the regime ruled until recently by Nazarbayev

Tokayev called on the Russia-led CSTO to send in ground troops to quell the unrest, undermining Kazakhstan’s effort to maintain a balanced foreign policy and forcing it into increased political dependence on Russia. 

‘The problems with Kazakhstan’s failed reforms are multiple’ writes FT, as Nazarbayeb ‘engaged technocratic elites in designing them, the strategy was developed primarily to match his personal vision.’ 

The country drew inspiration from western practises and Singapore’s economic miracle. Former president Nazarbayev’s administration hired consultants including former UK PM Tony Blair for advice on building a positive image at home and abroad. 

The methods ‘offered superficially attractive but shallow solutions to complex problems of economic inequality, social mobility and political aspirations.’ 

FT says the government failed to understand the impact of its reforms at grassroots level. 

“Economic and political grievances grew. Well-organised unions campaigned against labour conditions in oilfields. Loosely connected political movements in urban areas demanded a more open political system. Police reforms instituted after the deadly shooting of protesters in the western city of Zhanaozen in December 2011 had little effect.” 

Kazakhstan spent a decade experimenting with western policing models, but mid-level and rank-and-file police officers didn’t have the skills or resources to implement those models, and instead focused on pleasing the regime bu reporting only positive outcomes. 

Large scale corruption is also a mahor problem and although the country’s economic growth has been “remarkable” by the World Bank’s standards, politically loyal elites were the chief beneficiaries of the country’s vast energy resources. 

The country’s oligarchs – including members of Nazarbayev’s family funnelled their wealth into UK real estate and rural areas have lost out. 

The oil-rich western regions are ‘relatively poor and politically under-represented’, according to FT. They say locals survive on small salaries and loans from banks controlled by people from the regime’s inner circles. 

The nation’s wealth is not in the hands of its brightest minds. 

Despite the large scholarship programme to support students’ study at top universities across the globe, only a handful of the country’s new generation of highly educated young professionals are involved in top-level decision-making. 

The post-Soviet generation of Tokayev and Nazarbayev continues to hold the keys to political power. 

The country’s reform efforts were expensive but the cost of the regime of ignoring grassroots grievances has proved to be even higher. Kazakhstan can still catch up with advanced post-industrial nations – but to achieve it the regime needs to meet the expectations of its people. 

Read, Kazakhstan pays the price for ignoring public discontent on Financial Times