A Ukrainian project named the ‘black box’ has been set up to degrade Russia’s offensive capability (Picture: Come Back Alive/@BackAndAlive)
A senior analyst involved in a secretive Ukrainian ‘black box’ project funded through donations has used a ‘stream of accidents’ at Russian air bases to highlight its impact.
Mykola Bielieskov referenced the series of explosions at military aviation facilities up to 600km inside enemy territory as he gave Metro.co.uk an insight into the covert operation.
The Come Back Alive foundation, which supports the armed forces, has set up the fund in cooperation with Kyiv’s military intelligence services.
Sensitive targets — including long-range bombers being used to launch missiles at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure — have sustained damage over the past two days.
The UK Ministry of Defence reported on Twitter this morning that two Tu-95 Bear heavy bombers were damaged at Engels Airbase in Russia’s Saratov Oblast and three people were killed when a fuel tank exploded at Dyagilyaevo airfield, which lies south east of Moscow.
The Defence Intelligence update cited multiple open sources and said that if the Kremlin decides yesterday’s attacks were deliberate, ‘it will probably consider them as some of the most strategically significant failures of force protection since its invasion of Ukraine’.
Headquartered in Kyiv, Come Back Alive is providing large consignments of high-tech kit, together with training, to frontline troops. Supplies have included a strike drone complex, armoured vehicles, off-road cars and thousands of pieces of thermal imaging kit.
Smoke and flames rise from a Russian facility in an image shared by Come Back Alive (Picture: Come Back Alive/@BackAndAlive)
Founded in 2014 during the Maidan Revolution and start of the Donbass war, the foundation has raised more than six billion Ukrainian hryvnias (£132 million) to date. The black box project target is 230 million hryvnias (£500,000), with the stated aim of degrading Russia’s offensive capability.
Mr Bielieskov, who works in the charity’s analytical department, told Metro.co.uk: ‘I suppose you can see from recent developments that somehow there is, inadvertently, a string of accidents in Russia.
‘These are not along the frontier with Ukraine but in Russia itself and involve the bases of strategic bombers like Tu-95, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3.
‘You can see from the coincidences that something is going on.
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‘Of course, it’s very difficult to donate to the black box project without the specific details but people know from our successful track record that we have credibility and we try to bring the utmost result for every donation.
‘The six billion we have raised so far is modest when you convert it into pounds but we aim to continue to leverage people’s confidence and to have the greatest effect for the funds we receive.
‘The stream of accidents in Russia says quite a bit and I think you can see that something is going on.’
An image purportedly showing a damaged Russian bomber and military vehicle at an air base (Picture: Ukraine Weapons Tracker/@UAWWeapons/Twitter)
The black box project is said by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence to have caused millions of US dollars’ worth of damage to the Russian military in October alone. It is understood the initiative is not linked to this week’s explosions at Russian air bases but that these give a good impression as to the nature of the partnership.
Pictures tweeted yesterday by the Ukraine Weapons Tracker feed purportedly show a damaged Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber and a shattered service vehicle at the Dyagilyaeov air base.
The account, which tracks materiel used in the conflict, said the long-range aircraft, which had been loaded with a missile ready for use, ‘will not fly anywhere without serious repair’.
A further explosion at a fuel storage depot was reported to have taken place this morning at a site between Kursk Airport and a military base closer to the border with Ukraine.
Early reports on social media suggested that it was the result of a drone attack, but it is unclear exactly what triggered the series of blasts.
Kyiv has not taken responsibility for the incidents.
Another image, posted by the foundation on its Facebook page two weeks ago, showed an explosion at an undisclosed industrial-type facility underneath a funding update about the project.
The charity, which includes military veterans among its 70 members of staff, also provides training to Ukrainian forces, which includes facilitating secret missions that it says it will make public after Russia is defeated.
The Come Back Alive foundation’s director Taras Chmut with the symbolic black box (Picture: Come Back Alive/@BackAndAlive)
In an earlier partnership, the foundation provided the country’s Defence Intelligence agency with a Bayraktar TB2 drone complex, including three of the unmanned aerial vehicles, air communication systems and a mobile ground control system.
Alongside the black box operation, the charity provides other high-spec materiel which over the past three months has included 11 armoured vehicles for the 36th Marine Brigade and a consignment of hundreds of thermal imaging optics.
The foundation is the first in Ukraine to obtain a license for the purchase of military and dual-use goods, including lethal weapons.
Donations can be taken in cryptocurrency and it says it can track every contribution and purchase in real-time.
The explosions that have taken place across Russia amid Moscow’s bombardment of Ukraine’s civil infrastructure (Graphic: Getty)
‘This is the biggest war in Europe since 1945 and people are praising the ability of the Ukrainian troops to improvise,’ Mr Bielieskov said.
‘But the flow of weaponry is a constant requirement.
‘High-intensity wars of this scale are won not only by improvisation and ingenuity but by the constant supply of munitions and weaponry, so we welcome training programmes and humanitarian aid but we also need more and more equipment.
‘Ten months on from the full-scale invasion, we need major production lines that outproduce the enemy, the same tactic that was used by the Allies to win both world wars.’
In the face of humiliating reverses on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, Russia has switched to tactics which include a grinding aerial bombardment of the country’s civilian infrastructure as the winter freeze sets in.
The airbase explosions, if carried out by Ukraine, show the capability of the defenders to hit back against Kremlin’s air arm on its own soil.
Major general Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, with the symbolic black box (Picture: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine)
In today’s update, the UK Ministry of Defence said: ‘The causes of the explosions have not been confirmed.
‘However, if Russia assesses the incidents were deliberate attacks, it will probably consider them as some of the most strategically significant failures of force protection since its invasion of Ukraine.
‘The sites are much deeper inside Russia than previous similar explosions: Engels is over 600km from Ukrainian-controlled territory.
‘Engels is the main operating base of Russia’s Long Range Aviation (LRA) within western Russia and is home to more than 30 heavy bombers.
‘These aircraft contribute to Russia’s nuclear deterrent and have also frequently been used to launch conventional cruise missiles at Ukraine.
‘The LRA is likely to respond by temporarily moving bombers to dispersal airfields. The Russian chain of command will probably seek to identify and impose severe sanctions on Russian officers deemed responsible for allowing the incident.’
A serviceman in front of a Bayraktar strike drone donated by Come Back Alive (Picture: Come Back Alive/@BackAndAlive)
Defence and security analyst Michael Clarke said the bombers were being used to carry and release missiles aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure.
He told Sky News that if the Ukrainians were responsible, ‘they are making a very clear political point’ by hitting the bases used in the aerial assault that has forced millions of civilians across the country to go for prolonged periods without heat, light and water.
The explosions follow a Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Saky air base in Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014.
Kyiv did not initially claim responsibility for the attack on August 9, with defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov suggesting Russian personnel had been careless with their cigarette butts.
Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s top commander, later confirmed his forces had carried out a series of rocket strikes on Russian military sites in the peninsular, which included taking 10 warplanes ‘out of action’ at Saky.
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Ukrainians have rallied behind a secretive charitable project aimed at degrading Russia’s offensive capabilities.
