In maps: The territory Ukraine could be told to surrender in a ‘land for peace’ deal

Any agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin following their historic summit could leave Ukraine in an impossible position after three years of brutal, grinding war for survival.

While no deal was struck when they met in Alaska on Friday, the two leaders are believed to have discussed the possibility of Ukraine giving up territory in exchange for an end to the fighting.

That would effectively be an annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory by Russia by force.

Russia currently occupies around 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea and the parts of the Donbas region it seized prior to the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Use the slider above to see how much territory Russia controlled in March 2022 – when it controlled the most – compared to now.

Going into the summit, Mr Trump said he hoped to get “prime territory” back for Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Mr Putin wants the rest of Donetsk – and in effect the entire eastern Donbas region – as part of a ceasefire plan.

But the Ukrainian leader said Kyiv would reject the proposal and explained that such a move would deprive them of defensive lines and open the way for Moscow to conduct further offensives.

Here, Sky News speaks to experts about what a deal between the Russian and American presidents in the coming days could mean for the battlefield.

Will Ukraine be forced to give up territory to Russia?

While Mr Trump’s attitude to Ukrainian resistance appears possibly more favourable from his recent comments, it’s still possible that Kyiv could be asked to give up territory as part of any agreement with Russia.

Moscow has been focused on four oblasts (regions) of Ukraine: Luhansk and Donetsk (the Donbas), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Mr Putin’s forces control almost all of Luhansk, but about 30% of the others remain in Ukrainian hands and are fiercely contested.

“Russian rates of advance have picked up in the last month, but even though they are making ground, it would still take years (three or more) at current rates to capture all this territory,” Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the RUSI thinktank, told Sky News.

He says it “wouldn’t be surprising” if Russia tried to acquire the rest of the Donbas as part of negotiations – something that is “highly unattractive” for Ukraine and could leave them vulnerable in future.

This would include surrendering some of the ‘fortress belt’ – a network of four settlements including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – that has held back Russian forces for 11 years.

Michael Clarke said this might well satisfy Mr Putin “for now”, but many believe that he would return for the rest of Ukraine – possibly after Mr Trump leaves office.

Mr Zelenskyy has since rejected such a concession, however, saying he has no right to relinquish territory and that the Donbas would be a “springboard for a future new offensive” by Russia.

Would Russia have to return any territory to Ukraine?

The White House appears to have been briefing that it might, though the situation is very unclear.

Mr Savill added: “The Ukrainians might want to even up the situation in the north, by removing Russian incursions into Sumy and near Kharkiv, but of greater importance would be getting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant back under Ukrainian control, given how much it would contribute to Ukrainian power needs.”

It’s also possible that Russia could be willing to withdraw from the areas of Kherson region that it controls.

It’s “plausible” they could get the power plant back, Mr Clarke said, but Russia would likely insist on maintaining access to Crimea by land.

This would mean that cities Mariupol and Melitopol would remain in Russian hands, with all that that entails for the people living there.

A ceasefire along the frontline?

Military analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News that the summit “certainly won’t create peace, but it might create a ceasefire in place if Putin decides to be flexible”.

“So far he hasn’t shown any flexibility at all,” he added.

A ceasefire along the frontline, with minimal withdrawals on both sides, would be “structurally changing” and an “astonishing outcome”, he said.

However, he doubts this will happen. Mr Clarke said a favourable outcome could be the two sides agreeing to a ceasefire that would start in two weeks time (for instance) with threats of sanctions from the US if Russia or Ukraine breaks it.

No deal was reached at the summit itself, but the two leaders are expected to continue to speak in the coming days and weeks.