What are England’s chances of winning the World Cup? 

Opta, a British sports analytics company, has predicted Brazil will win the World Cup 2022. 

The prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – by using betting market offs and Stats Perform’s team rankings.

What are the odds and rankings are based on?

The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model is able to consider the opponent’s strengths and the difficulty of their path to the final by using match outcome probabilities, taking into account the composition of the groups and seedings into the knockout stages. 

So what are England and Wales’s chances at winning the World Cup?

Brazil the favourites

South America’s Brazil have emerged as the favourites – with a 16% chance of lifting the cup, according to the model. They are also the team with the highest probability of reaching the final with 25%. 

In second place is Messi’s Argentina, who have a 13% chance of winning the Qatar world cup 2022. 

Rounding out the top five contenders at the 2022 World Cup are France (12%), Spain (9%) and England (9%).

France, in third place to win the tournament, have the highest probability of qualifying for the knockout stages (91%). 

England and Wales’s odds

The UK will be represented by two teams for the first time since the 1998 World Cup. England and Wales are both in Group B. 

The data says England has a 60% chance of topping the group, and are the fifth-best chance of winning the tournament (9%). They are likely to make it to at least the quarter-finals, according to the model, and their probability of reaching the last eight is 56% – the thor highest percentage chance of any country at the World Cup. 

Wales may make it out of the group stages, as their match against the USA is their best route. They have a 41% chance of progressing to the last 16, with the USA slightly higher at 45%.