In one potential future, extreme poverty would be eliminated within a generation, by 2060 (Picture: Unsplash)
The global population could peak at an all-time high of just below nine billion people in 2050 and then start falling, according to a new study.
The long-feared ‘population bomb’ may not go off, according to a new report from the Earth4All initiative.
According to the report, the global population could peak at a much lower level – around nine billion – by mid-century.
The projection used a new model to explore two scenarios this century and the estimate is significantly lower than those by several predictions, including those of the United Nations.
In the first scenario, if the world economy continues along a path similar to the one followed during the last 50 years, many of the poorest countries can eventually break free from extreme poverty, and the global population will peak at 8.8 in the middle of the century before declining to 7.3 billion in 2100.
The long-feared ‘population bomb’ may not go off, according to a new report from the Earth4All initiative (Picture: Unsplash)
In the second scenario, if the world took a ‘giant leap’ in investment in economic development, education and health, the global population could peak at 8.5 billion people by 2040 and decline to just six billion by the end of the century.
In this potential future, extreme poverty would be eliminated within a generation, by 2060.
In just under 50 years, the global population doubled to four billion by 1975. It has just doubled again reaching 8 billion last November. This sparked a worry that the global population would double again to 16 billion.
‘The answer is a resounding no. The global population will not get anywhere close to that level, owing to a paradigm shift in demographics over the past 50 years,’ said Beniamino Callegari, Earth4All project lead and director of the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School.
‘Population growth rate peaked in the 1960s and has been falling steadily ever since. Women around the world are choosing to have fewer children, and the global average fertility rate is now just above two children per woman,’
The global population could peak at an all-time high of just below nine billion people in 2050 and then start falling, according to a new study (Picture: Unsplash)
Callegari pointed out that while the number of children per woman is below two in places like Germany and Japan, it is higher in most low-income countries and fragile states.
The United Nations estimates that the global population could peak at 10-11 billion people this century, before starting to decline slowly.
According to the new estimate, human numbers will peak lower and sooner than previously forecast. So, if the world invests more in economic development, education, and health, the global population could fall to levels at which everyone on Earth can have sustainable access to clean energy, shelter, food, and water.
‘The bomb will have been defused, allowing everyone to live a good life within planetary boundaries. This should be cause for celebration,’ said Callegari.
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A long-feared ‘population bomb’ may not go off.