Could Israel-Turkey war of words escalate to actual war?

The threats and insults have been coming from both sides for days now.

Turkey is trying to establish a “neo-Ottoman state” in Syria and if it crosses “red lines” then Israel will act, senior Israeli officials warned.

With its ongoing air attacks on Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, Israel’s “fundamentalist and racist” government has become “the greatest threat to the security of our region” with “aggressive and expansionist policies,” Turkish officials responded.

The latest undiplomatic comments came late last week as a result of Israel bombing Syria again.

Since the former authoritarian Syrian regime, led by dictator Bashar Assad, was ousted in December 2024, Israel has struck multiple targets in Syria. The new Syrian authorities — busy trying to pull the country together after 14 years of divisive civil war — say they don’t want any conflict with Israel.

Despite that, Israel says it has been forced to bomb Syria in order to ensure the new government didn’t use the old regime’s weapons against it.

But last week’s air strikes were different: They were intended as a message for Turkey, an Israeli official told local media.

Israeli fighter jets hit a military airport in Hama as well as striking the Tiyas, or T4, airbase in Homs, and a branch of the Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus.

Turkey has been quietly negotiating a defense pact with the new Syrian government for several months now. That would include training Syrian troops and using Syrian airbases, such as those struck by Israel.

Turkey argues this would allow it to fill the vacuum left by Iran and Russia, former military supporters of the deposed Assad regime, to help stabilize Syria and to continue operations against the extremist “Islamic State” group.

Israel sees it differently.

“Turkey’s intention to introduce air defense systems and radar to central Syrian airports poses a direct threat to Israel’s freedom of action in Syria,” Israeli defense reporter Ron Ben-Yishai wrote in an op-ed for local outlet, Ynet News. If Turkey was in Syria, Israel would not be able to freely use Syrian airspace to move towards, for example, Iran, Ben-Yishai argued. Under the Assad regime, use of Syrian airspace was more restricted.

Israeli media also seized on a report by the Nagel Commission on evaluating the security budget and force building. The Commission was established in August 2024 under acting Israeli security adviser Jacob Nagel, to make recommendations for Israel’s future defense budget. When the Commission’s report was released in January, Israeli outlets said it warned of a coming war with Turkey.

But in a recent interview, Nagel himself said “they [news reports] blew it out of proportion… Turkey’s increasing presence in Syria is something we must pay attention to, but we never recommended initiating conflict with Turkey.”

There’s also been talk in Israel about the fear of an evolving “Sunni crescent” that would see Turkey, Syria and Egypt aligned against Israel. Such a formation would replace the previously feared “Shiite crescent” led by Iran, which has been weakened over the past year. But experts say the idea of a “Sunni crescent” is unlikely: None of those countries actually want to fight Israel.

In fact, two days after Israeli airstrikes on Syria, Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan told the Reuters news agency that his country doesn’t want confrontation with Israel.

“Syria doesn’t belong to Turkey; Syria doesn’t belong to Israel,” Fidan said while in Brussels for a NATO meeting. “Syrian security should be decided by the Syrians. If they want to partner with certain countries and certain international communities, they’re welcome.”

‘Deepest rupture in years’ between Israel and Turkey

As a result of the recent war of words, Turkish-Israeli relations are at their lowest point in decades, observers say.

“Yes, this is probably the deepest rupture in years,” agreed Yusuf Can, an expert on Turkey and former analyst at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank that was shut down by the Trump administration late last week. “For a long time, Turkey and Israel had this odd arrangement. Even when they were politically at odds, trade kept flowing. But that buffer is now eroding… Proxy war is now a very real threat, which wasn’t the case before.”

In 1949, Turkey was one of the first Muslim-majority countries to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. The two nations established intelligence, trade and military ties and, despite inflammatory rhetoric from both Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, the two nations have maintained those ties — even over the past year.

So what is really going on?

By bombing Syrian infrastructure, moving troops onto Syrian territory and interfering in its internal politics, Israel is forcing the militarily weak Syrian government to turn to Turkey for help, observers argue.

“Continued Israeli aggression, attempts to ‘demilitarize’ southern Syria and interference in Syrian politics may… make it more likely that [the new Syrian government] deepens defense cooperation with Turkey, to deter further Israeli expansion,” a mid-March commentary by Brussels-based think tank Crisis Group noted.

“Both sides see the other as the root of the problem,” Can told DW. “In reality though? It depends who you ask. They both have a point. Israel’s airstrikes and Gaza policy fuel anger and instability, no question. But Turkey’s regional interventions and support for Islamist factions have also contributed to the chaos, especially in Syria. It’s a self-reinforcing rivalry with each side’s actions justifying the other’s fears.”

However, Israel and Turkey are unlikely to get into a direct confrontation. Talks to defuse the tensions appear to be under way this week because even if Israel just accidentally hit the Turkish military, that could risk serious conflict.

“Behind the scenes, both sides seem to understand that a direct military clash would be disastrous, especially since Turkey is a NATO member and Israel is a key US ally,” Can continued. “Plus, there’s talk of possible US or Russian mediation to avoid a full-on spiral. So, although the risk of escalation is real, both sides are clearly trying to walk a tightrope.”

It is also unlikely Israel’s staunchest ally, the US, would approve.

“[US President Donald] Trump plays a key role in this conversation, due to his relationship with both leaders,” Can notes.

During Netanyahu’s visit to Washington this week, Trump said he had a “very, very good relationship with Turkey and with their leader.” He also told Netanyahu to be reasonable and to “work out” any problems he had with Turkey.

Unfortunately, the rivalry may still end up playing out inside Syria, Can concluded.

There the two nations have opposing aims, Selin Nasi, a visiting Turkish studies fellow at the London School of Economics, told Radio France Internationale last month.

“Turkey wants to see a secure and stabilized unitary state,” Nasi said. “Israel, on the other hand, wants to see a weak and fragmented Syria. Its main concern has always been securing its northern border.”