Compulsory military service: Sufficient weapons, but too few soldiers – USA is urging Ukraine to use 18-year-olds in war

The USA is apparently urging Ukraine to send young men to war at the age of 18 in the future and thus solve the shortage of recruits. To date, the age limit has been 25 years – i.e. after completing your studies or training. The background is the high number of casualties and the personnel superiority of the Russian troops, who could soon attack together with North Korean allies in the Kursk region.

A senior U.S. government official said Wednesday that Ukraine is facing an “existential” recruitment problem. “The simple truth is that Ukraine is currently not mobilizing or training enough soldiers to replace its battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia’s growing military,” the official, who asked not to be named, told AFP.

Asked what Washington considers the appropriate minimum age for mobilization, the official replied that “we think it makes sense for them to consider lowering the enlistment age to 18.” This is consistent with the US age limit.

The pool of men of fighting age must be expanded so that Ukraine, which is heavily outnumbered, can survive its almost three-year war with Russia. The official said that in its current situation, Ukraine “technically” needs more troops to fight.

The White House has provided more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. It aims to send more arms shipments – including internationally banned landmines – worth billions more to Kiev before Biden leaves office in less than two months.

But since time is of the essence, the Biden White House is also making another point of view clearer: Ukraine now has the necessary weapons and must drastically increase its troop strength if it wants to survive in the fight against Russia.

The official said the Ukrainians believe they need about 160,000 additional troops. The US government, on the other hand, believes that the Ukrainian army will need significantly more than that. More than a million Ukrainians are currently in uniform – including the National Guard and other units.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also heard concerns from allies in other Western capitals that Ukraine has a troop problem, not a weapons problem. According to the AP, this was reported by European officials who requested anonymity in order not to jeopardize the sensitive diplomatic talks.

The European allies also stressed that the lack of troops could soon make it impossible for Ukraine to hold the areas on Russian territory in the border region of Kursk, which the country captured this year. The situation in Kursk has worsened further with the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops who are supposed to support Moscow in retaking the area.

US government change creates time pressure

The increased pressure on Ukraine to strengthen its fighting troops also comes as Ukraine prepares for President-elect Donald Trump‘s inauguration on January 20. The Republican repeatedly announced during the election campaign that he would end the war quickly. In doing so, he has raised the question of whether his government will continue the important US military support for Ukraine. The Biden government apparently wants to get ahead of this. The “Wall Street Journal(WSJ) reports that the US government still has outstanding commitments for $6.5 billion in arms sales to Ukraine.

In order to spend the money until the change of government on January 20th, the country would have to deliver weapons worth $110 million every day – around $3 billion in December and January. This is logistically impossible because the Pentagon is already supplying the maximum amount of weapons and equipment that is possible without restricting the US Army, they say. Therefore, the new Trump administration will adopt open funds. It is unclear whether it will continue to use these to support Ukraine.

These remaining funds “provide significant leverage for the next administration to stop or suspend shipments to Ukraine,” Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank told the WSJ. “The Trump administration’s first task will be to decide what to do with the remaining equipment and how best to submit the next supplemental request to Congress.”

But even if Trump continues to deliver, staffing shortages will remain. “There are no easy answers to Ukraine’s severe labor shortage, but lowering the draft age would help,” said Bradley Bowman, of the US Foundation for the Defense of Democracies: “These are obviously difficult decisions for a government and a society, who has already endured so much due to the Russian invasion.”

Ukraine has already taken steps to increase the number of draft-eligible men, but those efforts have only scratched the surface from a U.S. perspective given Russia’s much larger military. In April, the Ukrainian parliament passed a series of laws, including lowering the draft age for men from 27 to 25, to expand the pool of men eligible for military service.

These laws also abolished some exemptions from conscription and established an online register for recruits. This was expected to increase the number of troops by around 50,000 men, which was far below what Zelenskyi considered necessary at the time.

Conscription was a sensitive issue in Ukraine throughout the war. Russia’s own problems with adequate troop levels and planning early in the war prevented Moscow from taking full advantage. But the tide has turned and the US is convinced that the Ukrainian shortage can no longer be overlooked.

Some Ukrainians have expressed concern that further lowering the minimum draft age and removing more young adults from the workforce could further damage an economy hit hard by the war. In addition, young men would no longer be able to complete their studies or training before they were called up.

The U.S. official added that the administration believes Ukraine can also optimize its current troop levels by taking more aggressive action against soldiers who desert or are absent without authorization. Some young conscripts are also accepted in Germany and are able to avoid life-threatening service.