Caren Miosga: “Without the USA, lasting security guarantees for Ukraine are impossible,” says Laschet

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has been raging for over 1,000 days. Now the situation is getting worse: Russia is reporting military successes and increasing attacks on civilian infrastructure. At the same time, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) visited Kiev earlier this week and presented a new weapons package. This is scheduled to be delivered this year.

The mood of change could also be felt in Paris on Saturday. French President Emmanuel Macron invited US President-elect Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral. What resonates at the meeting: the hope of taking the first steps towards negotiations.

Caren Miosga discusses with her guests what the chances are for negotiations and what this means for Ukraine and Europe. CDU foreign policy expert Armin Laschet makes it clear: Germany must continue to take care of its defense. Security policy expert Claudia Major considers the American-Ukrainian meeting in Paris to be a French success and “Stern” journalist Moritz Gathmann reports on his experiences in Ukraine. The current situation in Syria only played a minor role in the talk show.

President Macron facilitates “remarkable meeting”

Security expert Claudia Major is enthusiastic about the meeting between Trump and Zelensky in Paris. For the politically ailing Macron, this is an “enormous success”, especially these days. Macron managed to catch Trump again and again during the first Trump presidency. But it would have been nicer if “other Europeans had also been involved” at this meeting, Major regrets.

CDU politician Armin Laschet blames Olaf Scholz for this: “This German-French relationship doesn’t seem to be that important to the incumbent Chancellor.” It is important at all appearances – including to Putin – to send the signal: Germany and France stand together. Before the war began, first Macron and then Scholz traveled to Ukraine. Even back then, the two of them “could have traveled together and said: You can’t divide us apart.” These were wasted opportunities.

“War-weary doesn’t mean quitting at all costs.”

“Stern” journalist Moritz Gathmann was last in Ukraine in October of this year. “Last winter, Ukraine was a depressed country, and since then the mood has settled down to a very low level,” is how he describes the mood of Ukrainians.

“Of course they are war-weary. “That doesn’t mean: stop at all costs,” Major interjects. Nevertheless, the proportion of Ukrainians who are willing to compromise for peace is growing, counters Gathmann. This is also shown by a current study*: 52 percent of Ukrainians are in favor of negotiations with Russia as soon as possible. Zelensky has changed his rhetoric significantly in recent months. A week ago, the Ukrainian president said: “Our army does not have the strength to do this. We have to find diplomatic solutions.”

“Russia has overextended itself”

Within eleven days, Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by rebels and the regime collapsed. “Everyone was surprised that it happened so quickly,” says Gathmann. With regard to Russia, he sees this as positive: it shows that “Russia has overextended itself.” Russia wants to get involved everywhere, “but obviously it can’t.”

Laschet remains more skeptical: “To say now that there is certainly a good future in Syria is something I would warn against.” Europe must therefore offer perspectives: “If you adhere to certain standards, then you will have the full support of the European Union for reconstruction. “If that doesn’t work, which Laschet doesn’t rule out, “that means new refugee movements will reach Europe directly,” the CDU politician concludes.

Is the Kellogg Plan the solution to negotiations?

The new plan of US special envoy Keith Kellogg, planned under Trump, promises: “Peace through strength.” US military support for Ukraine will only be available if they agree to negotiations with Russia. In favor of this: a ceasefire on the front line, the occupied territories would remain under Russian control for the time being, and bilateral security agreements with Ukraine would follow.

Laschet is open to the suggestion. If Putin is not interested in negotiations, the Kellogg plan envisages “escalating and delivering so much that they will be ready at some point,” said Laschet. So far, only weapons systems have been discussed in Germany. This was very uncoordinated. The approach now follows a tried and tested NATO method: “if, then…”.

Major criticizes the “lagging determination” of German politics: “Military support was never provided the way Ukraine wanted it.”

There will be no “ultimate life insurance” for Ukraine

Negotiations are only sustainable for Ukraine in conjunction with security guarantees. The guests agree on this point. “The ultimate life insurance that Zelenskyj wants will not exist,” fears Major. Gathmann introduces the “porcupine theory”. Ukraine must be so well equipped militarily, apart from nuclear weapons, “that Russia would not dare to attack Ukraine again.”

Laschet believes that “without the USA, permanent security guarantees for Ukraine are impossible.” His hope: Similar to the US security guarantees for Israel, bilateral security agreements would be needed for Ukraine. In Germany, meanwhile, “it must be clear across party lines: We have to do more for our defense.”