AI could replace equivalent of 300 million jobs in US and Europe – report
A report by Goldman Sachs suggests that Artificial Intelligence (AI) could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs, and a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe.
However, the report also notes that AI could lead to the creation of new jobs and a productivity boom, and increase the total annual value of goods and services produced globally by 7%.
Generative AI, which can create content indistinguishable from human work, is seen as a major advancement.
The impact of AI on employment prospects will vary across different sectors.
‘Lower wages’
Speaking to BBC News, Carl Benedikt Frey, future of-work director at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford University said: “The only thing I am sure of is that there is no way of knowing how many jobs will be replaced by generative AI.”
“What ChatGPT does, for example, is allow more people with average writing skills to produce essays and articles.
“Journalists will therefore face more competition, which would drive down wages, unless we see a very significant increase in the demand for such work.
“Consider the introduction of GPS technology and platforms like Uber. Suddenly, knowing all the streets in London had much less value – and so incumbent drivers experienced large wage cuts in response, of around 10% according to our research.
“The result was lower wages, not fewer drivers.
“Over the next few years, generative AI is likely to have similar effects on a broader set of creative tasks”.
‘Long-term impact uncertain’
The UK government is keen to promote investment in AI to drive productivity across the economy.
While technological change since the 1980s has displaced workers faster than it has created jobs, 60% of workers are in occupations that did not exist in 1940. The long-term impact of AI is highly uncertain, and firm predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt.
If generative AI is like previous information-technology advances, the report concludes, it could reduce employment in the near term.
But, the long-term impact of AI is uncertain, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank Torsten Bell told BBC News, “so all firm predictions should be taken with a very large pinch of salt”.
“We do not know how the technology will evolve or how firms will integrate it into how they work,” he said.
“That’s not to say that AI won’t disrupt the way we work – but we should focus too on the potential living-standards gains from higher-productivity work and cheaper-to-run services, as well as the risk of falling behind if other firms and economies better adapt to technological change.”
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