Target to reach one million Welsh speakers by 2050 has been set but how likely is it

Wales’s government has set the aim of having one million Welsh speakers by 2050 – along with a doubling of the daily use of the language by then – but is that target achievable?

Figures from the latest census in 2021 showed a fall in the number of people who could speak Welsh compared to a decade earlier.

An estimated 538,000 people in Wales – or 17.8% of the population – said they could speak Welsh, compared to 562,000 in 2011 (or 19% of the population).

Some efforts to increase the prominence of the language in recent years, including the Brecon Beacons National Park’s decision to refer to itself only by its Welsh name Bannau Brycheiniog, have faced criticism from some quarters.

But a YouGov poll of more than 1,300 Welsh people earlier this year found two-thirds (67%) were in favour of efforts to increase the use of the Welsh language, compared to a fifth (20%) who were against.

Efa Gruffudd Jones, the commissioner tasked with promoting the use of the language, published her manifesto for next year’s Senedd election on Friday.

She said the Welsh language’s position had “stayed fairly constant over the last 20 years”.

“If we really want to change anything going forward, we need to change some of the things that we do,” she said.

“[Targets] are inspirational, they can inspire people to do more. But, on its own, setting a target doesn’t mean that you achieve it.

“So I really think we need to think hard about how we increase the numbers of Welsh speakers and how we ensure that more people can use it in their daily lives.”

Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage told ITV Wales last month that he would scrap the target if the party forms the next Welsh government.

In her manifesto, Ms Gruffudd Jones has five key proposals for the next Welsh government as people in Wales prepare to head to the polls in May next year.

They include increased use of the language in workplaces, more public services available in Welsh and mandatory Welsh language training for newly-qualified teachers, with the commissioner insisting such a move would not “alienate” potential new recruits to the profession.

“It’s about creating the opportunity for everyone who wants to come into the workforce to be able to develop their skills and to be able to make sure that every child who wants Welsh-medium education in Wales [is able] to receive it,” she said.

At Welsh-medium secondary schools, at least 60% of learners have a minimum of 70% of their lessons in Welsh, according to Welsh government criteria.

And at Welsh-medium primary schools, at least 80% of pupils’ school activities will be in Welsh from the age of seven onwards.

Nothing to be afraid of

The Welsh language commissioner published a report last month which found young people’s use of the language socially, including on social media, was “limited”.

Gwynedd Council, in northwest Wales, has outlined plans to make Welsh the “principal language” of education across the county, in an effort to boost the number of people who leave school speaking the language.

The proposals, which are subject to public consultation over the coming months, are set to “remove bilingualism and bilingual teaching” from its schools’ policy.

But Councillor Dewi Jones, the cabinet member for education on Gwynedd Council, has insisted English-medium education “is not being phased out”.

He told Sky News that pupils moving to Gwynedd from outside of Wales would be given support with their Welsh through the county’s language immersion units.

“There’s nothing to be afraid of here, I’m completely confident that any latecomers to the county will be able to fully integrate and become fully bilingual,” Cllr Jones added.

He said the council was “very proud” to have a “very high number of Welsh speakers” in the area, “especially among young people”.

“But we’re ambitious to go beyond that and ensure that all young people in Gwynedd are fully bilingual so that they have the benefits of both the Welsh language and the English language,” he said.

Academic language

In Ysgol Cwm Rhymni, a Welsh-medium secondary school in Caerphilly, Year 12 students have just finished their exams and are starting to think about the next steps after school.

Mili, who speaks Welsh at home with her family, said the language was an “integral part” of her life.

“For many students, their parents don’t speak Welsh, so they don’t hear Welsh on a more social level, it’s more of an academic language for them,” she told Sky News.

Another student Megan said there were “a lot of people” who wanted to use Welsh outside of school but there were “a lack of things for them to be able to use Welsh”.

“People would be willing to speak Welsh if there are things there to allow them to speak the language once they’ve learned it,” she added.

Student Ben said there was a “lack of places where you can speak Welsh in the south that aren’t schools or festivals”.

Meanwhile, fellow student Maisie said there were already “a lot of opportunities” to use Welsh outside of school, such as in Welsh-speaking groups, but they weren’t “advertised” enough.

On the streets of Cardiff Bay, opinions were mixed over the target to reach a million Welsh speakers by 2050.

“I think we could [reach it] because there are a lot of Welsh schools now, and all the schools are learning to speak Welsh,” one woman said.

“I don’t know if you will get to a million, but I certainly would aim for that, as close to that as you can,” another added.

One man said it was unrealistic as Cardiff was “not a Welsh-speaking capital” but that the language was spoken more widely in other areas.

What do the political parties say?

Plaid Cymru’s Welsh language spokesperson Heledd Fychan said the party has “a range of progressive and radical policies” on the Welsh language and that Wales needed “a government that is willing to act”.

Tom Giffard, the Welsh Conservatives’ shadow Welsh language secretary, said “neither language should be squeezed out of any area” and it must be ensured that “additional bureaucratic strain is not placed on the health or education services”.

Jane Dodds, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, said the party supports the vision to “expand the use of Welsh across public services, workplaces, and education” but that the proposals should be delivered in a way that is “fair” and “inclusive”.

The Labour Party declined to comment and Reform UK did not respond.