Kyiv faces economic blow as EU tariffs set to return

Kyiv faces economic blow as EU tariffs set to return

As the EU’s tariff-free trade scheme with Ukraine (ATMs) expires, Kyiv faces a major economic blow. Introduced in 2022 after Russia’s invasion, the Autonomous Trade Measures removed all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural goods—vital for sustaining Ukraine’s wartime economy. But with the ATMs lapsing on Thursday and no permanent deal secured, tariffs are set to return. This could cost Ukraine over €3 billion annually in lost export revenue.

Nearly 60% of Ukraine’s exports went to the EU in 2024, up sharply from 2021. The European Commission’s failure to secure a new agreement—amid domestic pressure from protesting EU farmers, particularly in Poland—has left both sides scrambling. Quotas for 2025 will now apply on a pro-rated basis. While Brussels hopes to resume talks post-Poland’s election, uncertainty lingers. The lapse threatens Ukraine’s economic stability and exposes frictions in EU policymaking during wartime.

Media Comparisons

• Financial Times: Focused on the EU’s political paralysis and Ukraine’s potential revenue loss, calling the failure “a critical lapse in wartime solidarity.”
• Politico Europe: Highlighted internal EU tensions, especially from Poland and Hungary, over grain imports and local farmer protests.
• Euractiv: Reported on the Commission’s stalled negotiations and the geopolitical cost of failing to maintain trade support for Ukraine.

Political Reactions

• Ukraine: Officials warn of a €3 billion economic hit, calling for urgent negotiations and accusing the EU of “strategic hesitation.”
• European Commission: Faces criticism for not finalising a deal; now pushing for post-election talks with less political pressure.
• Poland: Farmers’ protests shaped the Commission’s cautious approach; elections delayed decisive action.
• Other EU States: Mixed reactions—some demand tighter quotas, others urge solidarity with Kyiv.

🟠 Sentiment: Cautiously Negative – Marked by economic anxiety, political frustration, and diplomatic urgency, but not devoid of hope for renegotiation.