Who won the trade war? A trade war that would send economic shockwaves through North America and beyond is on hold – for now, did Trump get everything he wanted?
President Trump’s high-stakes gamble with its closest trading partners appears to have paid off, with both Mexico and Canada agreeing to stricter border security and taking bigger steps to address fentanyl trafficking.
Did Trump win?
Trump can point to concessions on border and crime enforcement as a victory. But Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum also can claim political wins.
The strategy to leverage the US economy to force concessions from other countries notches a win for Trump’s “America first” agenda, allowing him to follow through on core domestic issues without American consumers feeling the sting of the economic consequences of a continental trade war.
However, the fact that Canada tore-up a contract with Elon Musk also push Trump to make concessions of his own. Not everything went his way.
Who won the trade war?
Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium during his first term prompted backlash from Mexico, Canada and the European Union, but economists say those measures were more limited in scope. It was the arrows before the pincer move.
This time, Trump has promised sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and China, which is still set to see a 10% tariff increase on goods starting at midnight on Tuesday.
Did Trump get everything he wanted, it remains unclear if indeed he did, whether Trump will follow through on his threats to Canada and Mexico once the 30-day deadline is up. That uncertainty stirs fears that could see businesses reducing their reliance on American markets, holding off on investing in building new factories or hiring workers until the trade stand-off becomes more clear.
What do Canadians think?
While the threat of tariffs remains, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can claim a political win: a temporary truce in what was shaping up to be a devastating trade war.
Canadian politicians have been scrambling to figure out what exactly would satisfy Trump, baffled by his deliberate obfuscation.
One question that remains is what this means for the future of the Canada-US relationship. The partnership between the allies has been deeply shaken by Trump’s economic threats. Will it ever recover and no-one knows who won the trade war yet, but the fact the Justin Trudeau is about to leave office, may have helped his cause in standing up to the American President!
What do Mexicans think?
Throughout this trade crisis, President Claudia Sheinbaum has called for “cool heads” and “calm”.
Even on Friday, she said she was confident of a last-minute reprieve from the 25% tariffs on Mexican goods. And so it proved, following an early morning telephone call with President Trump.
Announcing the agreement soon after, she could barely wipe the smile from her face and her supporters have heralded what they see as a masterclass in how to negotiate with Donald Trump. But it wasn’t really a win-win. Mexico now needs to divert funds to border control and pay for US military intelligence as part of the package.
Maybe she should have played hardball! Trump still has one big clash to come, The Chinese, will the President be able to bully the Chinese the same way he did to Canada and Mexico, lets see.