Cliff Notes – What does Syria’s future look like?

The lifting of US sanctions may herald economic relief and reconstruction for war-torn Syria, providing a chance for stability and refugee returns.
Uncertainties remain surrounding the specifics of sanctions relief, with conditions likely tied to security improvements and political commitments, including relations with Israel.
Despite a hopeful outlook, the new government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa faces challenges in uniting diverse groups and restoring security amid a backdrop of past violence and ongoing instability.

What does Syria’s future look like?

This week, Syrians, full of hope and joy, once more took to the streets across the country to celebrate. Following the announcement by US President Donald Trump that he wanted to completely lift crippling sanctions on the country after 45 years of international isolation, the future of the war-torn country appears much brighter.

“It’s their time to shine. We’re taking them all off,” Trump announced in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday during his three-day visit to several Gulf states. “Good luck Syria, show us something very special.”

Syria’s Foreign Ministry called the announcement a “pivotal turning point” and a “vital opportunity for Syria to pursue stability, self-sufficiency and meaningful national reconstruction, led by and for the Syrian people.” For Syrians, the end of US sanctions could mean economic relief, reconstruction and most likely the return of many Syrian refugees from abroad.

Details unknown

However, it remains unclear if sanctions relief will be limited to specific sectors, like international humanitarian aid, banking or general business, or if the end of the US sanctions is subject to certain conditions. The EU has lifted some sanctions on Syria but others remain in place. On Thursday, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, proposed a further loosening of sanctions on Syria.

“We still need to see whether Trump’s words translate into action given the wide range of measures imposed on the country,” Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations said. “This could be a process that takes longer than many Syrians would like,” he said.

In the past six months, Syria has undergone massive changes. In December, the country’s dictator Bashar Assad was ousted by a coalition of rebel groups led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS. The group was led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, who now acts as the country’s interim president. This ended the civil war in the country after almost 14 years. Reconstruction in Syria could cost anywhere between $400 billion and $1 trillion (€890bn).

Al-Sharaa has promised to bring all of Syria’s diverse political and religious groups on board in the new government. Doubts remain though because of a number of violent incidents that appear to set the majority Sunni population against minority groups and it’s clear that the new Syrian government doesn’t yet have full control of security in the country.

Yet in Trump’s view, al-Sharaa, who was formerly involved with more extremist factions, including Al Qaeda, has “got a real shot at holding it together.”

“He’s a real leader,” Trump said.

Strings attached?

Along with lifting sanctions, Trump also urged Syria to do five things, according to Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary.

“1. Sign onto the Abraham Accords with Israel; 2. Tell all foreign terrorists to leave Syria; 3. Deport Palestinian terrorists; 4. Help the United States to prevent the resurgence of ISIS; 5. Assume responsibility for ISIS detention centers in northeast Syria,” she wrote on the social media platform, X.

Trump himself has said that Syria agreed to recognize Israel once Syria is “straightened up.”

But there was no official confirmation from Damascus as to whether it would join the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and a set of Arab countries.

“Improved relations with Israel would be important considering that Israel has become a major destabilizing actor in Syria since Assad’s fall,” Nanar Hawach, senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group, told DW.

“They have been doing hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military capabilities and an invasion into Syrian territory in the south — and without reaching some kind of understanding, Israel will likely continue being this destabilizing factor,” he said.

Any closer ties with Israel would also cause internal pressure on al-Sharaa, Hawach added. Historically, Syria and Israel are foes, and there have been multiple conflicts between them since Israel’s foundation in 1948. “But the benefits will probably outweigh potential backlash,” Hawach told DW.

Israel itself is yet to comment on potential diplomatic relations with the new Syrian government. Israel’s concerns over the toppled Syrian regime’s past ties to Iran and Hezbollah, and its fear of being attacked over its border, as it was by the Gaza-based Hamas group on October 7,2023 , could be reassured by new diplomatic ties.

The fourth and fifth point, to help “the US to prevent the resurgence of ISIS” and assuming responsibility for detention camps housing members of the extremist “Islamic State” (IS) may be another signal that the US is planning to withdraw its troops from northeastern Syria. Several thousand IS supporters and their families live in various detention centers run by Syrian Kurdish-led forces who are backed by US troops.

More Syrians expected to return

For Crisis Group’s Hawach, an end to sanctions will not only impact economic recovery. “The economic collapse has fed insecurity by eroding basic services, deepening local grievances, and pushing people toward armed groups.” Adding: “Lifting sanctions could help reverse that dynamic.”

Syria remains one of the world’s largest refugee crises. Since 2011, more than 14 million Syrians have fled their homes in search of safety, with around 6 million leaving the country and the rest internally displaced, according to the UN.

Following the ousting of Assad, some 1.87 million Syrians, both internally displaced and returnees from abroad, have already returned to their communities, a new report from the UN’s International Organization for Migration released on Wednesday said. “But economic hardship and lack of essential services are hampering recovery efforts,” the report highlights.