US withdrawal from Paris Agreement ‘devastating’

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to withdraw the United States, the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter, from the landmark Paris climate agreement for the second time.

The move places the US among just a handful of countries, including Iran and Yemen, that are not part of the international accord. The accord calls on governments to take action to cap global warming at 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) and to pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.

“I’m immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate rip-off,” the new president said as he signed the order in Washington shortly after his inauguration. “The United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity.”

The Chinese foreign ministry responded immediately with foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun voicing concern over the US withdrawal. China is responsible for around a third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Jiakun said China would actively respond to climate change and jointly promote the global low-carbon transition.

‘Drill, baby, drill’

During his inaugural address, Trump doubled down on pledges to “drill, baby, drill,” saying the US has the “largest” oil and gas reserves in the world, and it intends to use them.

For weeks, Trump has been promising to sign a slew of executive orders in his first days in office, many targeting what he has repeatedly called the “green new scam.”

One of his first moves was to sign orders suspending new offshore wind power leasing. In the past, he has railed against wind energy — a quickly growing market in the US — calling turbines “an economic and environmental disaster.”

The new president is also expected to move to undo some or all of the major climate policies put in place by his predecessor Joe Biden, including parts of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA is aimed at boosting renewable energy, green jobs and fighting climate change.

The US exited the Paris Agreement in Trump’s first term, only for Biden to undo the move when he took office in 2021.

What will it mean for US to exit the Paris Accord?

A US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement removes the country’s obligation under the accord to reduce its emissions, warned Laura Schäfer from environmental and human rights NGO Germanwatch.

“In this crucial decade for climate action. This is, of course, devastating,” she said, adding that it could have wider ramifications.

“This could be a signal for others to reduce their commitment on climate mitigation. It could reduce pressure on other big emitting countries like China. … US emissions play an important role regarding the question if we are about to stay below the 2 degree and 1.5 limit,” she said.

Scientists say the window for keeping global heating under 1.5 C is rapidly closing. The United States emits around 11% of global greenhouse gases.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are obliged to record their emissions and submit reduction targets every five years, with the next round of goals due to be presented before the beginning of February in advance of the COP30 climate conference taking place in Belem, Brazil, in November 2025.

Former President Joe Biden’s administration put forward the US’s nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, as the targets are known, in December. They outlined commitments to reduce net emissions between 61 and 66% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels.

“Withdrawing from Paris essentially de facto removes the NDC,” said David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the US-based World Resources Institute. However, he added that while President Trump would likely reject the emissions reduction target, it still sends a signal.

“What’s important about the NDC and what the Biden administration did is it sets a marker, a North Star, for what the United States needs to do on climate change. So that reduction really puts in place a clear signaling effect, a lighthouse for what needs to be done by the US cities and states,” he said.

Who will lead on climate in the US?

During Trump’s first administration, more than 4,000 governors, city mayors and business leaders from across the US pledged to uphold the country’s commitments under the Paris Agreement through the We Are Still In coalition.

Following Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, some leaders renewed vows to continue with emissions reductions as part of the US Climate Alliance, which says its aim is to work towards a net-zero future.

Waskow said that clauses within the IRA, put in place by the Biden administration, will make it difficult for Trump to repeal the entire act, particularly as Republican states are receiving a chunk of tax credits and incentives for clean energy and electric vehicle projects.

“There could be some chipping around the edges, but I think it could remain intact. And in terms of how others internationally react to that, I think it’s important to look beyond Trump’s stage show and to see what’s actually going on in practice,” Waskow told DW.

Still, one analysis suggests Trump’s four-year term could mean an extra 4 billion metric tons in US emissions by 2030 carbon dioxide equivalent pumped into the atmosphere by 2030 were the new president to repeal the IRA completely. That is equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the European Union and Japan.

“That makes it clear that we expect a lot more emissions from the US compared to what Joe Biden had planned,” said Schäfer.

Could there be an economic impact for the US?

Rolling back on climate measures could have an impact on the US economy, with analysts pointing to the growing investment globally in green energy compared to fossil fuel

Global energy investment in 2024 was expected to exceed $3 trillion, according to an International Energy Agency report, with $2 trillion going on clean technologies like renewables and electric vehicles, and other energies like nuclear power, versus $1 trillion on coal, gas and oil.

Li Shuo, an energy expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the US withdrawal would impact the country’s ability to compete with China in clean energy markets like solar and electric vehicles.

“China stands to win, and the US risks lagging further behind,” he said.

The next steps on a withdrawal

Despite Trump’s swift action on a US exit from the Paris Agreement, the country will have to wait one year after receipt of the withdrawal for it to be official. That means the US will still be part of the accord when the next COP climate conference takes place.

It is unclear whether the US administration will attend the summit, but either way it will have a diminished role. Experts say that the EU and the world’s biggest emitter China could be poised to strengthen their leadership in the talks.

Waskow said there is hope for the international agreement even without the US.

“90% of global emissions are represented there in that global agreement. So that’s extremely important,” he added.

Edited by: Jennifer Collins