The dust has settled, what did we learn from the US secret files leak? – America is spying on its allies – its empire has exposed NATO on the ground
US secret files leak
The recent leak of secret US government documents has offered a tantalising glimpse into the US military empire. From spying on allies to America’s bleak outlook on Ukraine, a lot was revealed in the documents – even if it didn’t garner the sort of headlines you’d expect.
Unsurprisingly, big corporate media gave far more attention to the man behind the leaks – 21-year-old Jack Teixeira – than the shocking details revealed. Then, the media went silent. That’s not to say the media hasn’t covered the leaks – they have, but we’ve heard more about how embarrassing the leaks are for the US, how Teixeira had access to top-secret files, and how the files ended up on social media undetected for so long.
Ukraine stalemate in 2023
The leaks reveal that the “fog of war” is still very much present. While the documents contain a wealth of information about the conflict, reading between the lines suggests that the Pentagon is struggling to understand the situation on the ground.
One of the critical questions that the documents try to answer is how many men and pieces of equipment each side is losing. While the raw data paints a picture of significant casualties on both sides, the Pentagon has “low confidence” in these numbers due to operational secrecy, deliberate distortions, and “potential bias in Ukrainian information sharing.”In other words, the US does not always trust what it is being told by its Ukrainian allies.
The documents also highlight the lack of certainty around the battle for Donbas, with the Pentagon having only “moderate confidence” that the conflict is likely heading for a stalemate throughout 2023. The Pentagon would have more confidence in this assessment if it could accurately estimate the endurance of Ukraine’s operations and fully account for the toll Ukraine’s counter-offences in late 2022 took on Russian morale and equipment.
US caught spying on allies
The leaked documents also suggest that Washington has reverted to covert means to improve its understanding of the conflict, including spying on the country it claims to be helping. Intercepted conversations between Ukraine’s President and his top officials discussing the pros and cons of hitting Russian targets in Belarus or Russia itself have been reported, as have rumours of an alleged Russian plot to sabotage Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation.”
While the documents provide a snapshot of the conflict, they also reveal the complex and constantly evolving nature of military conflicts. Some of the reported weaknesses may have informed joint US-Ukrainian planning long before they came to public attention. The tone of the documents is more sober and pessimistic than most public American pronouncements about the war, with no predictions of sweeping Ukrainian successes. Instead, the talk is of “modest territorial gains.”
The leaks have exposed how America spies on its allies. It’s not uncommon but it’s certainly embarrassing. As Agence France-Presse reported
The leaks, which the Pentagon have called a serious risk to national security, have revealed US unease over the viability of a coming Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian forces, and suggested it spied on allies Israel and South Korea
Agence France-Presse
One of the leaked documents warned that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had deepened ties with Russia – a claim the UAE deny, but regardless, it will make relations between the countries uncomfortable.
Egypt also denied a claim from one of the leaked files that they had cut a secret deal to supply Russia with rockets, gunpowder and ammunition.
NATO forces on the ground
One of the major reveals from the documents is that it appears the UK is the biggest NATO contributor of special forces on the ground in Ukraine. Declassified UK reported that there are 50 UK special forces troops in Ukraine.
The US went on to claim some documents appear to have been doctored, and the UK government did not comment on the claims.
Whilst the leak wasn’t quite the same level as Wikileaks or the Snowden files, it did reveal a little glimpse of America’s military power. The information revealed is valuable if only to offer a snapshot of a constantly evolving situation and highlight what governments are keeping a secret from us.
It’s concerning, though not surprising, that NATO forces are on the ground. It’s also important that the world knows America’s pessimism about the longevity of the war – we may see an entire year, if not longer, of stalemate.
