Trump, Macron and the ‘strong men’

Was it to speak in his ear between the opening of the doors and the Te Deum? Donald Trump had initially insisted on sitting next to Emmanuel Macron at Notre-Dame’s reopening on Saturday, December 7. Although protocol remained discreet until the last minute about the seating arrangements, the American president-elect and the head of state are due to meet in this unlikely setting, five years after the fire that ravaged the cathedral in 2019. A dinner is scheduled to follow at the Elysée, in the company of the 50 or so world leaders present, including Jill Biden, the wife of the US President.

Even before the ceremony, the two leaders are due to hold talks at the Elysée on the main hot topics of the moment: Iran, the Middle East, the risks of a transatlantic trade dispute and, of course, the war in Ukraine. The Elysée was even hoping to organize an unprecedented three-way meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian president, whose visit was confirmed on Friday, is also keen to sound out the Republican’s intentions, to plead his country’s cause after more than a thousand days of fighting against the Russian invader.

This precise diplomatic ballet recalls a constant of the Macron years: The president’s propensity to talk to “strongmen,” like Donald Trump, and other more or less autocratic leaders, at the head of the uninhibited powers that feed the headlines. “Since coming to power, Macron has cultivated personal contacts and believes in his ability to turn situations around thanks to his powers of persuasion,” observed former diplomat Michel Duclos. “He does not intend to stop at ideological differences and accepts the limits of transactional diplomacy.”

Autocrats of all stripes

Barely elected in May 2017, the former investment banker attempted to forge a strong relationship with Trump on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Brussels, remembered for the long, manly handshake exchanged between the two men. A few days later, Macron established a dialogue with Vladimir Putin, invited him to the Château de Versailles, before venturing into an unsuccessful policy of rapprochement with Moscow, interrupted for good by the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This dual approach marked the start of a long series of exchanges with autocrats of all stripes: China’s Xi Jinping, received in Paris and also in the Hautes-Pyrénées in May, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, India’s Narendra Modi, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – seen again this week in Riyadh – and Argentina’s libertarian Javier Milei, met in Buenos Aires just before the Rio G20 summit in mid-November. “These days, it’s always worth trying to talk to these leaders, who have often become unavoidable, even if it fails. Everyone does it discreetly, but Macron likes to put on a show,” observed Arancha Gonzalez, former Spanish foreign minister (2020-2021). “However, we shouldn’t be under any illusions.”

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