Progressive candidates’ primary victories shape Democratic midterm strategy

Washington — A series of victories by leftist congressional candidates — from New York to Colorado to Michigan, and now, Florida — have punctuated the Democratic primaries and defined the midterm campaigns so far, raising questions about the reach of their influence and viability of the progressive-left’s movement as Democrats seek to take control of the House and Senate in November. 

As Democrats look to capitalize on the president’s low approval rating, an unpopular war with Iran and pervasive affordability issues this fall, they’re also engaged in a pitched battle over different visions of the party. And although the progressive-left momentum has featured prominently in that storyline so far, the movement may be overstated, falling well short of widespread efforts like the Tea Party, which gripped Republican races in 2010. 

David de la Fuente, deputy director for politics and research of Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, called the far-left’s ability to defeat three incumbents this cycle an “impressive feat,” but added that “in the big scheme of things, it’s turning blue places even bluer.” 

“In the vast majority of districts that will determine who actually controls the speaker’s gavel, these candidates are not running, and they’re certainly not winning,” he said. 

It’s a dynamic that may be by design. For one prominent leftist group, Justice Democrats, its focus is on deep-blue districts, not pouring resources into races where “the Democratic Party has an entire infrastructure to flip purple seats,” a spokesperson said.

“Our focus is on ensuring that the representatives of the deepest, most Democratic districts actually represent the base of this party and are actually the ones leading this party forward,” Justice Democrats’ communications director Usamah Andrabi said. “Before we go and try and chase every purple voter in this country — which, obviously, we need to win purple voters to flip Congress — we need to win our base back.” 

Whether in deep-blue enclaves or beyond, the congressional hopefuls are part of a larger story about a newly emboldened kind of progressive candidate, some of whom are self-identified democratic socialists, representing an emerging generation of energized voters who are pushing the envelope on issues from healthcare to workers’ rights to U.S. support for Israel — and may move the needle for the party going forward. 

Tracking the progressive left’s rise

Of those 10, seven to nine are expected to make it to Congress next year, all representing deep blue districts.

The wave of victories first came to the forefront with New York’s June primaries, where a trio of wins by insurgent candidates in New York City prompted widespread speculation about the future of the Democratic Party. 

Darializa Avila Chevalier, a Justice Democrats and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani-backed candidate, defeated Rep. Adriano Espaillat in a huge upset in the 13th District. State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, another candidate with the same backing, came out victorious in the 7th District. (Another Mamdani-backed candidate, progressive Brad Lander, a former DSA member, also won his primary in the 10th District.)

In less closely watched races in May, candidates backed by leftist groups, Frederick Haynes in Texas’ 30th Congressional District and Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District, won their primaries. In early June, Angela Gonzales-Torres and Mai Vang advanced to the general election in California’s 34th and 7th Districts, respectively, and Adam Hamawy won his primary in New Jersey’s 12th District. And in a head-turning victory later that month, democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated a 15-term incumbent in Colorado’s 1st District. 

The trend continued earlier this month in Michigan, where democratic socialist Donavan McKinney ousted the incumbent in the Detroit-area 13th District. Meanwhile, Abdul El-Sayed’s win in the Democratic Senate race garnered widespread attention — despite a smaller-than-expected margin of victory. While El-Sayed isn’t a democratic socialist, his policy views overlap, and he has campaigned with prominent self-described democratic socialists like Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

After Michigan, State Rep. Justin Pearson, who gained national attention as a member of the “Tennessee Three” gun control protest, secured the Democratic nomination in the state’s 9th District. And rounding out the series of victories on Tuesday, Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon pulled off an upset victory to secure the Democratic nomination in the Florida Senate race. 

Though the picture has differed from race to race, the candidates have generally espoused a populist, anti-establishment message focused on economic issues, mobilizing their base and overcoming serious funding disadvantages. In many races, healthcare is at the center, while in others, issues like AI and data centers or taking on corruption in politics are center stage.  

But in other races, the progressive-left has fallen short, the bids being subject to the same forces that can beleaguer any campaign.

Former Rep. Cori Bush lost her primary bid in Missouri’s 1st District, while in Illinois, Junaid Ahmed and Kat Abughazaleh lost their primaries in the 8th and 9th districts, as did Nida Allam in her race to represent North Carolina’s 4th District. In California’s 11th District, Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, failed to advance to the general election in the race to replace former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. On Tuesday, while Nixon pulled off her victory in Florida, democratic socialist Oliver Larkin fell to Rep. Jared Moskowitz in Florida’s 25th District. 

Though the picture is mixed for the congressional hopefuls, general sentiments toward democratic socialist candidates and ideas may be warming. The democratic socialist label is viewed positively by about half of Democrats, and 58% have a favorable impression of socialism, according to a WTX US News poll released Sunday. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll released last month found that three-quarters of Democrats said they would be open to supporting a democratic socialist candidate for president. Another survey released this month by CNBC found nearly half of Americans ages 18-34 hold favorable or very favorable views of democratic socialism. 

Another Tea Party movement?

Some have drawn comparisons between the recent energy around leftist candidates and the Tea Party movement in 2010, when insurgent Republicans won a majority of the 63 seats that delivered House control to the GOP. 

The scale of the Tea Party movement was much broader, with 138 Tea Party candidates running for the House and Senate that year. Today, there are fewer competitive seats, thanks to gerrymandering, meaning there are only about 40 seats in the House viewed as in-play. 

“It was much more stylistic than meaningfully changing politics in ways that transferred power from the political establishment to many Americans who were agitated at the time,” Ashik Siddique, a co-chair for DSA’s National Political Committee, said of the distinction between the Tea Party movement and the progressive left.  

De la Fuente compared this year’s wins to the victories of a group of four first-term, progressive congresswomen, including Ocasio-Cortez — known as “The Squad” — in 2018, during the last two years of President Trump’s first term. 

“You saw Tea Party darlings actually flip districts from blue to red,” he said. “I would be hard-pressed to point to a single Justice Democrat or DSA member who’s going to flip a district from red to blue.” 

If Democrats were to win control of the House, Senate and the White House in 2028, that would present a test for progressive insurgents, according to De la Fuente. 

“Do members like Kiros and [Avila Chevalier] try to tank a Democratic president’s agenda? I think that’s going to be the big question mark,” he said. 

In the more immediate future, how the leftist Democrats will impact Congress remains to be seen. On the Senate side, a push to oust Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York has found legs among the progressive left. El-Sayed, now the Democratic nominee in the Michigan Senate race, has been among those calling for new leadership.  

On the House side, progressive-left candidates don’t appear poised to challenge Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ leadership. But they could complicate his ability to keep the party united.

Jeffries, 56, is poised to become the first Black speaker of the House next year if Democrats secure a majority in the chamber in November. The New York Democrat, who represents a Brooklyn-area district, is more progressive than Schumer and hasn’t received the same pushback against his leadership, though some have not committed to supporting Jeffries. 

Speaking at the National Association of Black Journalists convention in Atlanta last week, Jeffries acknowledged that “we are in an important moment of generational change.” Asked specifically about the DSA candidates on the ballot, Jeffries, who has generally supported incumbents, said, “I think we’ll see what happens in terms of what the caucus looks like on the other side of the midterm elections.” 

Jeffries said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday that he doesn’t support the DSA agenda, pointing to planks like defunding the police, open borders and abolishing the Senate. But he acknowledged that should the DSA-backed candidates be elected in November, they “will be part of the House Democratic caucus.”

“It’s going to be a broad caucus,” Jeffries added.

But the insurgent candidates “do not answer to any master,” Ocasio-Cortez, a member of her local DSA chapter, said on ABC News’ “This Week” earlier this month.

“They are not beholden to any corporate interest or any party boss, and they are completely independent, which allows them to be responsible to their communities and the people that elected them,” she said. “In many ways, that makes our movement stronger.”

With increasingly narrow margins in the House in recent years, even a small number of progressive-left lawmakers could tip the scale on important votes, Siddique said.

“That’s a solid bloc of people who can make the difference on plenty of votes, especially if Democrats do end up with a majority in Congress, or a margin where seven-plus candidates could make the difference,” Siddique said. “That is a lot of leverage.” 

Andrabi noted it depends on the margin of the potential Democratic majority. 

“If it’s a margin that looks close to the size of our bloc, then it seems like our bloc will have ample amount of power to dictate or demand more of the Democratic Party,” Andrabi said. 

Asked whether he expects leftists to be a thorn in the side of Democratic leadership if they have the majority, much like the House Freedom Caucus to GOP leaders, Siddique said only that “we expect people to advance the policies that helped elect our candidates as Democratic socialists.” 

“That can mean agitating,” he said, “or it can mean collaborating with whoever wants to advance shared goals.”