Mainstream parties fear getting sidelined

The ousting of Sheikh Hasina last summer launched a new era in Bangladesh, seemingly turning the page on decades of rivalry between Hasina and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

Hasina, 77, is currently in self-imposed exile in India. And with 79-year-old Zia traveling to the UK to seek medical treatment this month, Bangladesh is rife with speculation on reviving a controversial doctrine that once aimed to sideline both leaders.

In 2007, the military intervened in Bangladeshi politics and installed a caretaker government in what is known as the “1/11 changeover.” The new regime was accused of pursuing the so-called “minus two” formula — the two being Hasina and Zia — after both rival politicians were arrested.

They were released in time for the 2008 election, however, allowing Hasina to retake power and keep it until the mass uprising in 2024.

Reforms before a vote?

Now, the country is once again run by a caretaker government, with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus serving as chief advisor. Yunus and his cabinet hope to enact reforms to the constitution and the electoral system. Only then, according to Yunus, will the country hold a general election.

For the more prominent leaders of Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the current limbo feels uncomfortably familiar.

“We remember those who tried to depoliticize us during the 1/11 government and even attempted to abolish our party,” BNP Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, said shortly after Hasina’s ousting last August.

“We must keep these issues in mind for the sake of our democracy and the country’s betterment,” he added.

BNP growing nervous with elections on hold

Zia’s ailing health is not the only source of insecurity for the party. Her son, Tarique Rahman, the second-in-command in the party hierarchy, has been in the UK for over a decade due to legal issues in Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, the leaders of the popular uprising are preparing to form a new political force, and there have been multiple signs that Hasina’s Awami League (AL) may be sidelined in future politics. The BNP fears it will suffer a similar fate unless an election is held soon.

The BNP’s Syed Emran Saleh accused the interim government of wasting time and focusing on “trivial issues” to delay the vote.

“Efforts are being made to delay the election after the popular uprising by turning non-issues into issues to create complications and chaos,” Saleh, who is the BNP’s joint secretary general, told DW.

In turn, Yunus’ press secretary Shafiqul Alam dismissed concerns about the “minus-two” formula as “irrelevant.” He claimed that the voting system in Bangladesh was “broken and needed fixing.”

“Many institutions failed to protect the country from fascist forces like Sheikh Hasina and to safeguard people’s voting rights. That’s why reforms in the constitution, elections, and police, among other things, are necessary,” Alam told DW.

Hasina and her AL party deny allegations that their rule was authoritarian.

Widening gap between government, BNP

Alam recognized the BNP’s crucial role in the movement against Hasina, and said the new government was “always in discussions with them on various matters.”

But the BNP seems less confident in its relationship with the Yunus government. Talking to DW, Saleh said that his party “aimed to build a close relationship through the exchange of ideas and opinions.”

“Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, creating a distance between us,” he said.

“As more days go by, the conspiracy (against the BNP) is growing,” Saleh stated, without naming any specific party or individuals.

He also said the interim government’s election plans were not “logical” from the BNP perspective.

Is the government paving the way for a new student party?

In recent months, the student leaders of the anti-Hasina protests have been vocal about attempting to establish a new political party, and the process is believed to be close to completion.

Some prominent protesters, including young professionals and civil society members, have already formed an “anti-authoritarian platform” called the National Citizens’ Committee (NCC), whose stated aim is to support reforms as the country shifts away from the previous regime.

The interim government of Bangladesh includes three advisors who represent the student protesters. Parallel to the rumors of sidelining the AL and the BNP, some observers are also concerned that the cabinet is delaying elections to give this new student party ample preparation time, and implementing various reforms to help them compete.

‘No such thing is happening’

NCC founder Nasiruddin Patwary dismissed the claims that a new political party was forming under the patronage of the Yunus cabinet.

“No such thing is happening,” he told DW. “Neither Dr Yunus nor any advisers have expressed a desire to form any such party.”

“Those making such statements are doing so to create a crisis.”

Separately, Yunus’ press secretary Alam said the government will maintain neutrality at any cost.

“Let [the protesters] form a political party first, then observe our behavior and actions. Only then can you question us and complain. Until then, these statements are merely speculations,” Alam told DW.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic