Sir Keir Starmer will set out a “plan for change” this week as part of what he is calling the next phase of government after a tumultuous start in No 10 – but Britain’s top pollster has raised serious doubts about whether he can convince the public.

After five months which have seen the prime minister’s poll rating plummet, Sir Keir is planning to set numerical targets for the economy, the NHS, public safety, energy security and social mobility against which the public can judge him and his government at the next General election, expected in 2029.

Keir Starmer will struggle to convince public with his plan for change

The milestones will run alongside public sector reform, Downing Street said, and will include a focus on reforming Whitehall, spearheaded by an as-yet-unannounced new chief civil servant and cabinet ministers, so it is geared towards the delivery of Labour’s missions.

But polling guru Sir John Curtice has warned that Sir Keir’s government has “hit significant political trouble rather early on in its life”, adding that “the fundamental question is whether a politician who has shown so far absolutely no ability to construct a narrative can suddenly construct a narrative”.

Speaking to The Independent, Sir John Curtice said the government “lacks a story of what it is about”.

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“There is an appreciation that what you need to do is improve things, and if you improve things, people will vote for you,” he said. “That is not sufficient, because you had to persuade people you have done things.

“I presume part of the idea of ‘plan for change’ is that all they had to say during the election was ‘change’ and that is all they campaigned on, and now they have to be a wee bit more specific on what kind of change they have in mind – which was an obvious gap six months ago.”

Since being elected in July with a landslide majority, Sir Keir has made a series of hugely unpopular changes, including cutting winter fuel payments to millions of pensioners, hiking national insurance contributions for employers and extending inheritance tax to cover agricultural properties, which farmers claim will force a generation of family farms out of business.

Next week, he will claim to have made the moves after inheriting the “unprecedented twin challenge of crumbling public services and crippled public finances”, framing changes including the winter fuel cuts and family farm tax as “difficult decisions” Labour had to take.

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The PM will claim that despite the challenges, his government has acted to stabilise the economy, crack down on illegal immigration and ploughed an extra £22bn into the NHS since coming to power.

The reset comes after Sir Keir’s transport secretary Louise Haigh was forced to quit for making a false report to police over a stolen mobile phone 10 years ago, becoming the first major cabinet casualty of his government.

Ahead of the speech, Sir Keir said: “This plan for change is the most ambitious yet honest programme for government in a generation. Mission-led government does not mean picking milestones because they are easy or will happen anyway.

“It means relentlessly driving real improvements in the lives of working people. We are already fixing the foundations and have kickstarted our first steps for change, stabilising the economy, setting up a new Border Security Command, and investing £22bn in an NHS that is fit for the future.

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“Our plan for change is the next phase of delivering this government’s mission. Some may oppose what we are doing and no doubt there will be obstacles along the way, but this government was elected on a mandate of change and our plan reflects the priorities of working people.

“Given the unprecedented challenges we have inherited, we will not achieve this by simply doing more of the same which is why investment comes alongside a programme of innovation and reform.”

Since the general election, which saw Labour win a 174-seat majority with 34 per cent of the vote, Sir Keir’s party has fallen within touching distance of the Conservatives in the polls, with just a three-point lead.

Responding to Sir Keir’s plans, Tory co-chairman Nigel Huddleston mocked the prime minister for launching his “17th reset”, a reference to his repeated changes of direction in opposition. He said: “Keir Starmer’s 17th relaunch will do nothing to hide the chaos Labour have unleashed on the country.

“In four short months, his Labour government has been engulfed in a cronyism row, cut the winter fuel payment for 10 million pensioners, hit farmers with the family farm tax and hammered businesses and working people with higher taxes. Keir Starmer has serious questions to answer about why he let someone serve in his cabinet who he knew had a fraud conviction.

“The British people will rightly be wondering why they have been short-changed by the party that claimed to offer change.”

The Reform UK party – which Nigel Farage said on Thursday now numbers more than 100,000 members – was equally sceptical.

A Reform UK spokesperson said: “We are a matter of months into this new government and it would appear they are already trying to have a reset. After freezing pensioners, hiking taxes and risking the future of British farming, the damage has already been done.

“We were promised growth and change, instead we have had sleaze, dishonesty and more of the same that failed the Tories.”

Sir Keir will promise his priorities will be at the heart of an upcoming spending review, vowing to ensure “every pound the government spends” goes toward improving peoples’ living standards.

And he will promise to charge his new cabinet secretary and ministers with a Whitehall shake-up to focus departments on the delivery of Labour’s missions, rather than “working in the traditional silos that focus on fiefdoms not outcomes”.